The World Cup's missing country

The 2026 World Cup, set to take place in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, will feature 48 teams, a significant expansion from previous tournaments. However, one nation with a vast population and growing interest in football remains absent from the list of qualifiers: China. Despite its economic might and the potential for immense revenue, the Chinese men’s national team has yet to secure a spot in the tournament. This absence highlights a complex issue involving both domestic sporting policies and broader cultural attitudes toward football. China’s failure to qualify for the 2026 World Cup marks another chapter in a long-standing struggle. The team has only participated in the World Cup once, in 2002, where they lost all three matches without scoring a goal. Since then, the squad has struggled to make consistent progress, despite the government’s increasing emphasis on football as part of national identity. President Xi Jinping, who oversaw the 2008 Beijing Olympics, has championed efforts to rebuild the men’s team with the goal of winning the World Cup by 2050. This ambition aligns with the Chinese Communist Party’s vision of transforming China into a modern global superpower. In the recent Asian qualifying tournament for the 2026 World Cup, the Chinese team faced humiliating defeats. They were beaten 7-0 by Japan, a regional rival, and also lost to Indonesia, though neither team ultimately qualified. Their draw with Singapore did little to improve their standing. Meanwhile, there are no Chinese male players competing in the top divisions of European professional leagues, a critical indicator of elite talent. This scarcity underscores a systemic challenge in developing high-level football within the country. Experts have identified several factors contributing to the underperformance of the Chinese men’s team. Corruption within the sport and the top-down management style of the Chinese Communist Party have hindered progress. Additionally, grassroots participation remains low compared to countries with similar or smaller populations. According to Rowan Simons, a researcher based in Beijing, the foundation of a thriving football culture requires widespread engagement. He notes that in China, parents often prioritize academic success over athletic pursuits, viewing football as a less reliable path to future stability. Despite these challenges, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Professor Xu Gouqi, a scholar specializing in sports in China, believes that the Chinese team could eventually qualify and even win the World Cup. He points to the example of Eileen Gu, a freestyle skier who represents China internationally. Gu, born to a first-generation Chinese immigrant mother and raised in Northern California, won gold and silver medals at the 2022 Winter Olympics. Xu argues that China’s ability to attract and develop talent from abroad could serve as a model for improving domestic football. Xu suggests that the solution lies in adopting a strategy that brings together the best young athletes, regardless of origin, to train and compete under the Chinese flag. Such an approach, he claims, would not only enhance the performance of the national team but also shift public perception of football in China. With a population of nearly 1.4 billion, a surge in enthusiasm for the sport could create a lucrative market for FIFA and other international organizations. As the 2026 World Cup approaches, the continued exclusion of China raises questions about the effectiveness of current strategies. Whether the nation will finally break through its historical barriers depends on a combination of policy changes, cultural shifts, and sustained investment in grassroots development. For now, the Chinese men’s team remains on the outside looking in, waiting for the opportunity to step onto the world stage.