The El-Sayed effect: How Jews and Israel are factoring into Michigan’s primaries

The intra-party debate over Israel that has dominated Michigan’s Democratic US Senate primary is reverberating further down the ballot throughout the state. Progressive former county health official Abdul El-Sayed’s bid to lead a swing state as an avowedly pro-Palestinian senator is being mirrored on a micro scale in Michigan’s 7th District, one of the nation’s most hotly contested congressional seats. In addition to endorsing a candidate there, El-Sayed and his movement have also taken aim at a Detroit-area incumbent who has belatedly embraced a pro-Israel platform, while a key architect of the 2024 “Uncommitted” movement is also running for local office. The 7th District, stretching from the state capital in Lansing into the Detroit suburbs and encompassing Michigan State University, is currently represented by a Republican. However, Democrats are viewing it as a potential pickup. The seat was previously held by Jewish Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who won her Senate election in 2024 even as Donald Trump won the state. Now, William Lawrence, a former climate activist who has called for an end to all military aid to Israel, is challenging two centrist Democrats for the party’s nomination. Lawrence’s campaign, unlike Slotkin’s more moderate approach, has positioned itself firmly against continued military support for Israel. Recently, Lawrence joined forces with El-Sayed, independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in Lansing, where he called for an end to arming Israel and urged investment in domestic priorities such as housing and social security. His stance has drawn attention from both progressive allies and critics within the Democratic Party. His main opponents, former US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and former Navy SEAL and Obama military aide Matt Maasdam, avoided using the term “genocide” to describe Israel’s actions in Gaza during a recent candidate forum. Lawrence, however, did not hesitate to use the word. Recent polling from two Brink-sponsored firms shows Brink leading in the polls, while an April poll from Lawrence-aligned Data For Progress indicates he leads by six points. Lawrence’s chances for the nomination appear to hinge on whether Brink and Maasdam can split the establishment vote. Like many progressive candidates this cycle, opposition to Israel forms a central part of Lawrence’s campaign message. His campaign expressed confidence in this strategy, acknowledging the district’s mixed political leanings. In response to questions about his position on Israel, his campaign stated, “There is broad support for ending military support to human rights abusers and bringing that money home to fund good jobs, housing, and healthcare here at home.” Lawrence’s campaign has faced controversy, including a past incident involving comments he made on a 2024 podcast. He referred to Black Democratic leaders as “a pillar, frankly, for establishment, capitalist, imperialist American power” that “defangs the white left.” These remarks resurfaced shortly before his large rally earlier this month, raising concerns among some members of the party. Meanwhile, Jewish Democrats in the state are closely monitoring the developments, many of whom are considering leaving the party due to the increasing focus on Israel-related issues. A young Jewish candidate is hoping to continue the legacy of El-Sayed’s Senate rival, centrist US Rep. Haley Stevens, and challenge the growing national trend of Democrats distancing themselves from support for Israel. This shift reflects broader tensions within the Democratic Party, particularly regarding its stance on Middle East policy and its impact on internal cohesion.