Earthquakes in Peru and Colombia: the National Institute for Seismic Prevention rules out a "contagious effect" in San Juan

A series of powerful earthquakes recently recorded in Peru and Colombia sparked concerns among experts who warned about possible tremors in the province of San Juan. In response to growing public anxiety and the spread of rumors on social media about a potential "contagion effect" triggered by seismic activity in neighboring countries, the National Institute of Seismic Prevention (INPRES) issued technical clarifications and urged the community to seek information through official channels. The experts emphasized that there should be no confusion between the permanent risk associated with the region and the ability to predict a seismic movement. The San Andreas Fault reaches its highest tension in 1,000 years, rekindling global alarms over the "Big One." This has led to increased scrutiny and discussion regarding the possibility of related seismic events elsewhere in South America. Despite these concerns, specialists from INPRES were firm in their reassurance, dismissing the notion that movements thousands of kilometers away could automatically trigger a major event in San Juan. The organization explained the tectonic dynamics governing the area and clarified whether there was any direct link between the strong quakes in northern South America and local activity. Geologist Irene Pérez of INPRES stated that there is no scientific evidence supporting the claim that earthquakes in Peru and Colombia will cause or anticipate a seismic event in the Cuyo region. She noted that earthquakes result from local tectonic processes and geological characteristics, and that a tremor in another part of the continent does not imply a "contagion effect" in San Juan nor allows for predicting a specific date or magnitude. This clarification is especially crucial in regions like Cuyo, where seismic activity is a part of the geological reality. San Juan and Mendoza lie within an active seismic zone, making them particularly vulnerable to such occurrences. The province of San Juan is recognized as having the highest seismic hazard in Argentina due to the interaction between the Nazca Plate and the South American Plate, traversed by a complex system of active faults. Director of INPRES, Marcelo Pablo Moreno Zuanni, asserted that the seismic hazard in San Juan is a constant reality with which the population coexists, and it does not change from day to day because of what happens in other parts of South America. He added that no scientific tool exists worldwide capable of precisely predicting when, where, and with what intensity a quake will occur. Pérez further explained that while a region may be identified as highly seismic, this does not mean one can assert that a strong earthquake will happen soon. The concept of seismic hazard allows for characterization of phenomena in terms of probability and over long periods, but it does not establish a specific date or location for the next earthquake. The distinction between hazard and prediction is essential. A region can be scientifically recognized as seismically active, yet no one can say with certainty that an earthquake will strike tomorrow, next week, or within a defined month. This understanding underscores the importance of relying on official sources for accurate and timely information during times of heightened public concern.