A "tax on this": falling air freight, warehouse growth and higher prices?

A new customs duty introduced by the European Union has triggered a noticeable decline in air freight capacity between China, Hong Kong, and Europe, according to data from Dutch analytics firm Rotate. The measure, which came into effect on July 1, imposes a temporary fee of three euros per item for shipments valued under 150 euros from outside the EU. This has led to a reduction in available cargo space and fewer direct flights, particularly affecting major European airports that serve as key hubs for Chinese e-commerce platforms. The impact has been most pronounced at Hong Kong’s international airport, where capacity dropped by nearly 47 percent, while Budapest International Airport recorded a similar decline of approximately 45 percent. Across the Asia-Europe routes monitored by Rotate, overall capacity fell by eight percentage points compared to levels before the duty was implemented. Between July 2 and July 8, the drop was even more severe, with total capacity declining by 19 percent. Airlines have responded by canceling some flights or rerouting them to alternative destinations, leading to disruptions in the supply chain for online retailers. Analysts caution that the decrease in flight numbers does not necessarily mean a corresponding drop in customer orders. Instead, they emphasize that logistics routes are being rapidly adjusted to accommodate the new regulations. The changes reflect a broader shift in how goods are transported, with companies seeking more efficient ways to navigate the increased costs associated with the new duty. The new tax is expected to generate additional revenue for the EU, with member states retaining 25 percent of collected fees while the remaining 75 percent will go toward the EU budget. However, the immediate effects on consumer behavior have already begun to surface. A survey conducted by YouGov, involving over 10,000 adults in Germany, suggests that higher shipping costs could influence purchasing habits. Half of current customers of Chinese e-commerce platforms indicated they would order less frequently, while 15 percent said they might stop shopping altogether. Only 22 percent of respondents stated they would continue buying at the same rate as before. Despite these concerns, the growth of Chinese e-commerce platforms continues. According to the German Association for E-Commerce (BEVH), Asian platforms currently account for 5.3 percent of the country's total e-commerce sales, with their revenues growing by more than 20 percent annually. This resilience highlights the enduring appeal of these platforms, even amid rising costs. Industry experts predict that the long-term impact of the new duty will be limited, as major platforms are accelerating the establishment of logistics centers within Europe. Rather than sending millions of individual packages, companies are increasingly opting to ship products in bulk to warehouses located inside the EU. These items are then subject to customs duties upon entry and subsequently distributed from European storage facilities to consumers. Both DHL and Leipzig/Halle Airport anticipate a primarily short-term reduction in air freight traffic, rather than a sustained decline. However, this strategy comes with its own challenges. Consumers on social media and online forums have noted that identical products labeled as “imported from the EU” often carry higher prices than those directly sourced from China. The reason lies in the added costs of warehousing, distribution, and labor in Europe, along with the inclusion of import duties and other expenses incurred during the import process. Additionally, some inventory arrives not directly from manufacturers or platforms, but through European intermediaries who purchase in bulk and sell via local warehouses. Each link in the supply chain adds its own margin, potentially making the final price of identical products higher than when ordered directly from China.