Tactical alliances emerging ahead of first Palestinian elections in two decades

Tactical alliances are forming among Palestinian political factions ahead of the country’s first legislative elections in nearly two decades, signaling a shift in the region’s fractured political landscape. With the upcoming November vote, groups that previously stood on opposing sides of the ideological divide are reportedly exploring cooperation to challenge the existing order. This development comes amid growing international pressure on the Palestinian Authority (PA), led by President Mahmoud Abbas, to implement reforms and hold free and fair elections. The last Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) elections were held in 2006, resulting in a controversial victory for Hamas. Since then, Abbas, who has served as president since 2005, initially announced plans for both legislative and presidential elections in 2021. However, he later canceled them, citing Israel’s refusal to permit participation by Palestinians living in occupied East Jerusalem. Analysts suggested that Abbas opted for this route due to polling data indicating that a slate of candidates led by jailed Palestinian activist Marwan Barghouti would likely win the legislative elections. Recent months have seen renewed interest in participating in the November elections, driven largely by external pressures from Europe and the United States for greater political reform within the PA. The election process, however, will be significantly shaped by the aftermath of the Gaza war, which has weakened Hamas’s grip on the territory it ruled for nearly two decades. Additionally, tensions in the occupied West Bank have escalated, particularly due to rising incidents of violence against Palestinian communities by armed settlers. A notable development occurred earlier this week when Mohammad Dahlan, leader of a splinter faction of Fatah, met with Hamas chief Khalil Al Hayya in Egypt’s Al Alamein. According to a statement released by Dahlan’s Democratic Reform Party, the meeting centered around achieving “unity of the national position.” However, the discussions extended beyond symbolic gestures, with a Hamas official confirming that a “political alliance” involving multiple Palestinian factions, including Hamas and Dahlan’s group, is under consideration. While the matter remains “under study,” the official noted that “in principle, there is an alliance” emerging. This potential alliance raises concerns among Fatah loyalists, who view it as a direct challenge to Abbas’s 21-year tenure. Abdel Fattah Dawla, a spokesperson for Fatah, questioned the legitimacy of the proposed coalition, asking, “On what political and national basis is this alliance being formed? What are its objectives and what are its points of reference?” He emphasized that Fatah is prepared to confront any alliances perceived as hostile toward the party. The meeting between Dahlan and Hamas took place on the same day U.S. Middle East envoy Jared Kushner visited Egypt, where he reportedly met with Hamas officials. Dahlan had previously clashed with Hamas during his time heading the Preventive Security Force and representing Fatah in Gaza. His eventual exile from Fatah was widely attributed to fears that he posed a threat to Abbas’s political stability. Fathi Nimer, a researcher at the Palestinian Policy Network (Al Shabaka) think tank, explained that many Palestinian factions feel Abbas has maintained exclusive control over the political narrative. “They all emphasize that there should be a more diverse set of parties and opinions in the Palestinian leadership,” Nimer stated. With Hamas relinquishing its governance in Gaza, dissolving its administration and establishing a transitional technocratic body under the Board of Peace, the group seeks to maintain relevance in the political sphere. Forming broader coalitions with other factions appears to be one strategy to achieve this goal. Public sentiment has also shifted, with recent opinion polls showing a sharp decline in support for armed resistance. Most Palestinians now favor negotiations aimed at ending the Israeli occupation and achieving statehood. These changing attitudes may influence how political factions approach the upcoming elections, potentially reshaping the dynamics of the Palestinian political landscape. As preparations for the November elections continue, the formation of new alliances and the evolving political climate suggest that the coming months will be critical in determining the future direction of Palestinian governance.