Strengthening El Niño to push 49 million more people into acute hunger

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warns that a strengthening El Niño weather pattern could push nearly 50 million more people into acute hunger by the end of 2027, according to a new analysis released on Wednesday. The projection comes amid growing concerns over how climate extremes will affect food security in vulnerable regions. The WFP estimates that the global number of people facing acute food insecurity could rise from 225 million to 274 million, an increase of about 22 percent, due to the ongoing El Niño cycle. The WFP identified Central America, southern Africa, eastern Africa, and parts of South and Southeast Asia as regions likely to experience the most severe impacts. In Latin America and the Caribbean, over 16 million people are expected to be affected, with Central America seeing the highest proportional increase in food insecurity, at 83.1 percent. East and Southern Africa, where upcoming rainy seasons are crucial for food production, face substantial risks, with more than 18 million people potentially facing worsening food security, marking a 26 percent increase. Southern African countries are especially vulnerable due to reliance on rain-fed subsistence farming. In Asia and the Pacific, the WFP projects that 8.2 million additional people could face acute food insecurity. Meanwhile, West and Central Africa are also at risk, with food insecurity expected to rise by 12 percent, impacting nearly six million more individuals. These figures highlight the wide-ranging consequences of the El Niño phenomenon, which affects rainfall patterns, temperature levels, and agricultural productivity across diverse ecosystems. The WFP emphasized that early intervention is key to mitigating long-term damage. Every dollar invested in preventive measures can yield returns of up to seven dollars in avoided costs and reduced emergency response needs. This underscores the importance of proactive strategies such as flood preparedness, drought resilience planning, and storm mitigation efforts. The agency is working closely with partners including the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and local governments to implement these initiatives. According to the WFP report, the current El Niño cycle, which began in September 2026, is expected to reach its peak between September and December of the same year. However, its effects will persist through much of 2027, influencing future harvests and exacerbating existing challenges. Drought, flooding, and extreme temperatures are already threatening communities, particularly in regions where food systems are fragile and populations are already under stress from poverty, conflict, and unemployment. The WFP and FAO have launched appeals for increased international support to assist vulnerable communities in preparing for the anticipated climate shocks. The agencies are urging donors and governments to prioritize funding for programs aimed at protecting livelihoods and ensuring access to essential food supplies. This includes investments in early warning systems, improved water management, and sustainable agricultural practices that enhance resilience against climate variability. As the El Niño cycle progresses, the WFP continues to monitor its impact on food security and adjust its response strategies accordingly. With the potential for widespread hardship, the agency stresses that timely and targeted interventions are vital to preventing further deterioration in food availability and nutritional outcomes. The coming months will be critical in determining whether these efforts can effectively safeguard millions of people from falling deeper into acute hunger.