Bills drained: 1 billion more for shops, restaurants and hotels

The Italian economy faces a new energy price shock, with inflation projected to rise to 3.7% in 2027 and GDP growth slipping to 0.6% due to persistently high oil prices and rising electricity and gas costs. According to Confcommercio’s Office of Studies, the impact of the energy crisis will further strain households and businesses, particularly in sectors such as retail, tourism, and hospitality. With oil prices remaining at around $140 per barrel, up from current levels, the inflation rate could increase by 0.7 percentage points, pushing overall inflation to 3.7%. This would result in a reduction of real consumption by half a percentage point, equivalent to approximately €250 per household, totaling around €6.5 billion. Consumption expenses for mandatory items are expected to climb to a problematic 5.9%, while discretionary spending would remain at 2.3%. Mandatory expenses would reach a record 42.9% of total consumption, creating a strong depressive effect on consumer spending. The analysis highlights that Italy's reliance on gas for nearly 43.7% of its electricity production, compared to just 3.2% in France, exacerbates the situation. Additionally, Italy’s electricity prices are up to almost €70 per MWh higher than in major EU countries, including Germany, Spain, and France. The energy crisis has already placed considerable pressure on Italian businesses, with additional costs expected to exceed €1 billion in the second half of 2026. Retailers would face an extra €494 million, restaurants €207 million, hotels €164 million, bars €111 million, and large distribution companies €50 million. These figures reflect increased electricity usage during summer months and higher costs due to climate control systems. Italy’s dependence on fossil fuels, combined with rising energy taxes and levies, which have grown by 33.9% since 2021 compared to declines in Spain and Germany, contributes to the imbalance. Confcommercio’s analysis notes that while the energy shock affects everyone, its effects are uneven. Although renewable energy accounts for 50% of Italy’s power generation, less than Spain and Germany, it is often sourced from gas-powered plants, worsening the financial burden. The association Elettricità Futura disputes some aspects of the study, arguing that many consumers have signed long-term fixed-price contracts, up to three years, which limits their exposure to volatile markets. It warns that continued public debate over energy pricing risks stifling investment in the country. Carlo Sangalli, president of Confcommercio, calls for urgent measures, including tax incentives for energy efficiency, reforms to system charges, acceleration of renewable and sustainable nuclear projects, and improvements in grid infrastructure and storage. He emphasizes the need to prevent energy cost increases from being fully passed on to consumers. The Office of Studies warns that the energy crisis could compound existing economic fragility, with GDP growth slowing quarter-on-quarter in 2026 and household confidence still below 2025 levels. Rising mandatory expenses risk further dampening consumption at a time when fiscal measures are under discussion.