The SRG election barometer Political polarization in Switzerland is intensifying

The political polarization in Switzerland has intensified, according to the latest SRG election barometer. The survey reveals that the country's political landscape is becoming increasingly divided, with clear trends emerging among voters' preferences for parties, gender differences, and perceptions of the federal government. Right-wing and left-wing parties are gaining ground, while centrist parties continue to lose support. According to the SRG-Wahlbarometer, the Swiss People's Party (SVP) would currently receive nearly 30 percent of the vote, up by two percentage points compared to the 2023 elections. The Social Democratic Party (SP) would secure 19.3 percent, an increase of one percentage point since the last elections. Both parties have maintained their upward trajectory over recent years. Centrist parties, however, are experiencing a decline. The Centre Party loses 1.5 percentage points, slightly more than the Free Democratic Party (FDP), which loses one percentage point. The FDP now ranks behind the Centre Party more distinctly than before. This trend reflects a long-term shift away from the center. The survey highlights a paradox in political polarization: parties that frequently lose referendums often gain in parliamentary elections. For example, the SVP lost major initiatives this year, including the half-population initiative and the neutrality initiative, yet still leads in the election barometer. This suggests that success in referendums does not necessarily translate into electoral success. The evaluation of the Federal Council also shows signs of polarization. More than a third of respondents believe the government is either too far to the right or too far to the left. Only 27 percent consider the Federal Council's political positioning to be just right, the lowest proportion since 2019. In contrast, during the height of the pandemic in autumn 2021, 45 percent viewed the Federal Council's stance as appropriate. Another notable polarization is observed between genders. Women tend to vote more to the left than men, and this gap is widening significantly among younger generations. This indicates a growing divergence in political views between men and women. Political polarization is not inherently positive or negative. However, in a system designed around consensus and compromise, such as Switzerland's, increasing polarization raises questions about its implications. Urs Leuthard, editor-in-chief of the Bundeshaus editorial team at SRF, has been analyzing elections and referendums since 2002. He previously served as moderator and head of the "Arena" and later took on leadership roles at the "Rundschau" and "Tagesschau." A year before the 2027 national and cantonal elections, the new SRG-Wahlbarometer provides insight into current voter concerns. The SVP maintains its position near 30 percent, while the SP and Greens show slight gains. Meanwhile, the Centre Party and FDP experience declines. The Greens gain 0.5 percentage points, reaching 10.3 percent, while the Centre Party drops to 12.6 percent and the FDP to 13.3 percent. The survey also highlights demographic differences in party preferences. Men favor the SVP more strongly than women, who prefer the SP and Greens. Younger voters lean towards the SP, whereas older voters show stronger support for the FDP. Educational background influences voting patterns, with higher education correlating with greater support for the Greens and lower support for the SVP. Income levels also affect preferences, with the FDP gaining support among higher-income households and the SP among lower-income groups. Leadership figures within parties play a crucial role in shaping public perception. Positive evaluations of party leaders vary, with the left-wing parties receiving better ratings from their supporters than the traditional parties. The Centre Party's leader receives less favorable assessments compared to his predecessor. As the 2027 elections approach, these findings underscore the evolving dynamics of Swiss politics, marked by deepening divisions and shifting voter allegiances.