Southern Africa Is Being Warned Twice And Should Listen Both Times

Southern Africa is bracing for what could be the strongest El Niño in living memory, according to the South African Weather Service, which warned that sea surface temperature anomalies have already surpassed the 2°C threshold defining a very strong event and could reach 3°C. This marks a critical moment for the region, as the developing phenomenon threatens to bring extreme weather conditions, potentially surpassing even the devastating 2015/16 El Niño that led to widespread drought, food shortages, and water crises. The timing of this warning adds urgency, as recent years have provided a temporary reprieve. The 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons saw a robust harvest, with South Africa’s summer grains and oilseeds reaching 20.3 million tonnes, only slightly lower than the previous record. Dam levels and grazing lands across the region benefited from two consecutive years of La Niña-driven rainfall. While these conditions offer some relief, experts caution that they may not fully mitigate the impact of a powerful El Niño, especially for dryland farms lacking irrigation infrastructure. Agricultural economists like Wandile Sihlobo emphasize that the current surplus is unlikely to compensate for the severity of a major El Niño event. The 2015/16 El Niño stands as a grim reference point. That event triggered unprecedented heatwaves and one of the worst droughts in the region’s history, exacerbating the crisis that nearly brought Cape Town to “Day Zero” in 2017–2018. At that time, the city faced the prospect of cutting off municipal water supply to four million residents. Zimbabwe and Zambia also declared drought-related emergencies during that period, with maize production collapsing across the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region. Millions relied on food aid, and the economic and social toll was immense. Now, the South African Weather Service has explicitly drawn parallels, noting that the region has warmed significantly over the past decade. A similarly intense El Niño in 2026/27, occurring against a hotter baseline, could result in more frequent and severe heatwaves than ever before. Despite the looming threat, there are signs of progress. Southern Africa is not beginning from the same position it was a decade ago. Cape Town’s near-crisis spurred substantial investments in water augmentation, aquifer development, and demand management, making the city a global example of urban drought resilience. Regionally, the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF), now in its 33rd edition, has evolved into a more coordinated early-warning system involving national meteorological services. This allows governments, farmers, and disaster agencies several months of advance notice, a marked improvement compared to the 2015/16 event, when delayed responses contributed to prolonged hardship in regions like the Horn of Africa. However, whether these improvements translate into tangible protection for communities depends on how effectively resources are managed. Reservoir levels entering this El Niño cycle are better than they were in 2015, offering some short-term resilience for irrigated agriculture and urban water systems. Yet, rain-fed crops such as maize, sorghum, and groundnuts, the primary staples for millions of smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, and rural South Africa, are vulnerable. These crops lack the buffering capacity of irrigation, and rising temperatures will intensify water stress regardless of reservoir levels. The forecast is now largely confirmed, leaving the focus on preparedness and response. As the region prepares for potential extremes, the challenge lies in translating early warnings into actionable strategies. With the El Niño event gaining strength, the coming months will test the ability of local authorities, farmers, and emergency services to adapt quickly and sustainably. The outcome will determine not just the immediate survival of crops and livestock, but the long-term stability of food security and water access for millions.