A new survey reveals shifting dynamics within Italy’s political landscape, with Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) continuing its decline while Futuro Nazionale, led by Roberto Vannacci, gains momentum. According to a poll conducted by Youtrend for SkyTg24, more than half of Giorgia Meloni’s supporters favor including Vannacci’s party in a coalition with her government. The findings highlight growing uncertainty around the current administration and suggest potential realignments among right-wing forces. FdI holds onto its position as the leading party with 26.4 percent of support, though it has lost 0.5 percentage points since July 3. It remains ahead of the Democratic Party, which stands at 21.9 percent, and the Five Star Movement, now at 11.5 percent. Futuro Nazionale, however, continues its upward trajectory, rising 1.2 percentage points over the same period to reach 7.6 percent. This brings it within three-tenths of a point of Forza Italia, which currently holds 7.9 percent. Other parties show mixed results, with Alleanza Verdi-Sinistra gaining slightly to 6.8 percent, while the League drops to 4.9 percent. Smaller parties such as Azione, Italia Viva, and +Europa see modest changes, but remain well behind the major players. The survey also indicates widespread dissatisfaction with the Meloni government, with 55 percent of respondents expressing negative views compared to 38 percent who hold positive opinions. This reinforces a broader trend observed since March 2023, although the gap between negative and positive assessments is narrower than previously recorded. Among those surveyed, nearly 40 percent either abstain or remain undecided, underscoring the volatility of public sentiment. Within the center-right coalition, there is notable division regarding the possibility of aligning with Vannacci’s party. Support for such a move is strongest among Futuro Nazionale voters, with 61 percent in favor, and among FdI supporters, where 53 percent back the idea. However, other members of the coalition, Forza Italia, the League, and Noi Moderati, are more skeptical, with 48 percent opposing the alliance and only 26 percent supporting it. A further 26 percent of these voters remain neutral. Public opinion on self-defense laws has also become a contentious issue following the Supreme Court’s ruling on the case involving jewelry magnate Mario Roggero. Nearly 57 percent of respondents believe Italian law should expand the circumstances under which self-defense is considered legitimate, while 10 percent argue for stricter limitations. Twenty percent feel the current legislation is adequate, and 13 percent have no opinion. The debate is sharply divided along ideological lines, with 81 percent of center-right voters supporting broader self-defense provisions, compared to just 36 percent of progressive-aligned voters. The Youtrend survey was conducted using computer-assisted web interviewing (CAWI) between July 21 and 22, 2026, reaching a sample of 810 adults representative of the Italian population. The methodology included stratified sampling based on gender, age, education level, and regional distribution according to ISTAT statistics. The margin of error is estimated at plus or minus 3.4 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. Another recent poll by Swg for TgLa7 shows similar trends, with FdI increasing slightly to 27 percent, while the Democratic Party of Elly Schlein loses ground to 20.9 percent. The Five Star Movement, led by Giuseppe Conte, also declines to 12.9 percent. Forza Italia sees a drop to 7.6 percent, while Futuro Nazionale rises to 6.9 percent. The League maintains its position at 5.7 percent, and Verdi and Sinistra gain to 6.5 percent. Meanwhile, Ora!, the movement founded by Michele Boldrin, reaches 1 percent, marking a notable emergence in the political scene. A separate development involves Elly Schlein, whose presence at the Festa dell’Unità in Fagnana signals continued engagement with leftist platforms. As summer approaches, these polls reflect ongoing shifts in voter preferences and potential challenges for existing alliances. With August bringing a pause in political activity, the coming months will likely reveal whether these trends solidify or shift further.
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