Bornoroni today is the most competitive opponent, but Llaryora retains a very solid floor

Recent political developments in Córdoba Province have brought new clarity to the landscape ahead of the 2027 provincial elections, according to a survey conducted by the consulting firm Sicchar. The findings indicate that while current Governor Martín Llaryora maintains a strong base, opposition candidate Gabriel Bornoroni has emerged as the most competitive challenger. This dynamic suggests a potential shift in the political balance as the election cycle progresses.

The survey highlights that Llaryora holds a consistent lead across all scenarios tested, but Bornoroni's growing influence marks him as the primary threat. Backed by the political brand La Libertad Avanza, Bornoroni has managed to narrow the gap significantly compared to the incumbent governor. Additionally, the study notes a stabilization in the public perception of President Javier Milei following a period of decline influenced by corruption allegations, economic recession, and the fallout from the Agostina Vega case. Although Milei’s approval rating remains below its initial levels, there is a noticeable recovery in his image.

According to the consultant Carlos Sicchar, the election is still in its early stages, with a significant portion of voters remaining undecided. He emphasized that the campaign has not yet formally begun and that the process will likely accelerate after the conclusion of the World Cup. Political leaders are expected to focus on increasing their visibility among Cordobese citizens once this phase begins.

The survey also reveals a notable change in how the public evaluates national governance. After several months of declining ratings, Milei's image appears to have stabilized. His approval rating was recorded at 61% at the start of the year but dropped to 46% before showing signs of improvement. Meanwhile, Llaryora has experienced a partial recovery in his public standing following the political impact of the Agostina Vega case. His current approval rating stands at 49%, with 40% disapproval.

In head-to-head matchups, Llaryora demonstrates a clear advantage over other opposition figures. In a scenario where he faces Luis Juez, he secures 38.5% against Juez’s 29.4%. Against Rodrigo de Loredo, Llaryora achieves 38.8% compared to de Loredo’s 32.4%. However, the most contested race emerges when comparing Llaryora with Bornoroni, where Llaryora leads with 39.1% versus Bornoroni’s 35.8%.

Sicchar noted that Bornoroni’s position as a candidate aligned with Milei plays a crucial role in his competitiveness. Without the backing of Milei’s brand, Bornoroni would lack both recognition and the level of competition he currently enjoys. Furthermore, many undecided voters appear more inclined to support Bornoroni than other candidates, especially when compared to de Loredo.

Despite these challenges, Siccar underscores that Llaryora’s base remains solid, aligning with historical voting patterns of the Cordoban peronism. While Llaryora's performance in head-to-head contests reaches up to 39%, Siccar refrains from viewing this as a definitive ceiling. Instead, he emphasizes the importance of the 34.5% figure, which represents Llaryora’s base in a multi-candidate scenario. With a large number of undecided voters still present, the election remains open to multiple possibilities.

As the political climate evolves, the upcoming months will be critical for shaping voter preferences and campaign strategies. The influence of national politics, particularly the trajectory of Milei’s presidency, could play a pivotal role in determining the outcome of the provincial elections. With the campaign season approaching, all political actors are expected to intensify their efforts to secure support from the electorate.