Ryanair forecasts flight surcharges and warns of possible bankruptcies of airlines

Ryanair has warned that airfares in Europe could rise significantly next year if oil prices remain high, while also cautioning that some airlines might face collapse due to financial pressures. The Irish low-cost carrier announced plans to cut its winter schedule to reduce losses by up to €100 million, according to reports. The company cited ongoing high fuel costs as a key factor behind these decisions, with jet fuel currently priced around $140 per barrel. Ryanair’s announcement comes amid growing concerns over the airline industry's vulnerability to fluctuating energy prices. The airline has lowered its passenger target for the fiscal year ending March 31 from 216 million to 214 million, citing efforts to shield itself from volatile fuel prices. It expects passenger numbers during the November-to-March period to remain roughly similar to last year’s levels. In a public statement, Ryanair noted that if high fuel prices persist into summer 2027, European short-haul fares would likely increase substantially to cover rising operating costs. Some of its less financially secure competitors, the company suggested, may struggle to maintain their operations or even survive the upcoming winter season. Fuel prices have been a central concern for airlines globally. Brent crude, the benchmark for global oil prices, reached $97.04 per barrel earlier this week, the highest since late July, due to renewed tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which raised fears about supply disruptions. Although the price later dipped slightly below $95, the upward trend has left many carriers exposed to higher expenses. Ryanair, however, has mitigated some of this risk through hedging contracts, securing 80 percent of its fuel at $67 per barrel. This strategy is expected to allow the company to post another profitable year, albeit with lower net profit than last year’s record. Despite the challenges, Ryanair remains optimistic about its performance in the summer months. The airline aims to increase passenger numbers by more than five percent during the April-to-October period, raising its tally from 138 million to 145 million. Earlier this year, the company had already indicated that ticket prices would moderately decrease between August and September compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, rival budget carrier Wizz Air reported a 25.9 percent increase in passengers compared to the same period last year, driven largely by expanded flight capacity. In addition to financial considerations, Ryanair faced a dramatic incident in July that tested its safety protocols. During a flight from Thessaloniki, Greece, to Munich, Germany, Ljubisa Karovic was nearly sucked out of the plane after a window shattered due to engine failure. His wife, Svetlana Grkovic, managed to pull him back into the cabin by gripping his legs with great force, assisted by two other passengers. The incident prompted Ryanair to reassure travelers about the safety of its aircraft, emphasizing that such occurrences are rare and that measures are in place to prevent them. The airline’s ability to manage both economic and operational risks will be crucial in the coming months. With fuel prices remaining a dominant factor in the industry, other carriers may follow Ryanair’s lead in adjusting schedules and pricing strategies. As competition intensifies and fuel costs continue to influence profitability, the airline sector faces an uncertain future shaped by both market dynamics and unforeseen incidents.