[Ruth Pollard] The world courts Kim Jong-un

Middle powers including Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia possess unique potential to influence global stability amidst intensifying tensions between the United States and China. These three nations share historical ties within the Anglosphere, which positions them as pivotal forces capable of acting as peacemakers. Analysts argue that these countries owe their citizens and the wider world an earnest effort to rise to the challenge presented by the new great power rivalry. Their shared heritage provides a distinct advantage in navigating the complex geopolitical landscape currently unfolding. In a separate but related diplomatic development, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has become a highly sought-after figure on the international stage. US President Donald Trump intends to meet Kim during a scheduled visit to Asia next month. Similar interest is expressed by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Kim previously stood alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a major military parade in Beijing last year. He also holds an outstanding invitation to visit Russia. This surge in diplomatic attention coincides with a reduction in Pyongyang’s previous isolation. A bridge connecting North Korea and China opened earlier this month, while a new border crossing with Russia launched in September. These infrastructure projects have deepened economic ties with Beijing and Moscow, thereby mitigating the impact of international sanctions. North Korea’s involvement in the conflict in Ukraine has provided Kim with credible strategic alternatives. Billions of dollars in arms sales and military support to Moscow have significantly improved the North’s economic position. This financial gain has arguably increased Pyongyang’s value to Beijing. Consequently, Washington’s primary bargaining chip, sanctions relief, holds considerably less weight than it did previously. During recent meetings between Trump and Xi in Washington, neither leader mentioned the denuclearization of North Korea. Beijing has avoided using the term for some time, whereas the US referenced it as recently as May. Despite these shifts, Kim may remain reluctant to engage with Trump again, given that their last summit in Vietnam in 2019 concluded poorly. Pyongyang has largely remained silent regarding overtures from the US president. However, the regime has explicitly rejected calls from South Korea for talks aimed at formally ending the state of war between the two Koreas and halting nuclear development. It has also dismissed proposals from Japan for a summit focused on resolving the abduction of Japanese nationals. Security analysts note that isolation will not maintain peace on the peninsula, especially given North Korea’s expanding nuclear arsenal and improving conventional capabilities. Nevertheless, Kim can afford to be selective about granting audiences. Reports indicate that the regime has amassed up to $22 billion in foreign revenue from 2022 to 2025. This shift allows Kim to reposition himself not as a pariah, but as part of a powerful group of anti-Western nations. Jenny Town, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, observes that these cultivated relationships yield immediate and tangible results. She argues that there is no incentive for Kim to negotiate with states making what he views as unreasonable demands. This dynamic poses a difficult question for global powers regarding strategy if denuclearization is no longer the primary goal. Reestablishing communication channels and reducing risks may be more realistic outcomes for current meetings. The nuclear issue could potentially be addressed later, though prospects weaken with each action taken by Trump, such as curtailing joint military exercises with South Korea or praising Kim’s nuclear arsenal. Priorities should focus on regional stabilization and strengthening alliances among the US, South Korea, and Japan. Beyond economic benefits, the war in Ukraine has provided North Korea with valuable military experience. Thousands of North Korean troops, including engineers, mine-clearance personnel, and drone operators, have deployed to support Russian operations. Returning soldiers bring back combat experience and technical knowledge of modern warfare, aiding Pyongyang in upgrading its defense capabilities. Meanwhile, Russia is pursuing an influence campaign in Africa to weaken Western powers. On October 28, Moscow will host African leaders for the third Russia-Africa summit since 2019. President Vladimir Putin aims to present Russia as a defender of the global majority against perceived neo-colonial practices by Western nations. This campaign gained momentum after Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine began in 2022. Russia is reportedly recruiting soldiers in Africa. At the 2023 summit, a Russian spokesperson claimed that Russian soldiers sacrifice their lives to guarantee freedom for African populations. Independent media outlets in Africa have criticized this narrative. The Sahel Times questioned whether any country has experienced security and stability due to Russian presence, noting that groups like Africa Corps, formerly known as Wagner, rarely side with local populations. Despite skepticism, the Kremlin views Africa as fertile ground for expanding influence. In February, Sergey Lavrov stated that 90 percent of Russian officials expelled from Europe were redeployed to the continent. Russia employs cultural diplomacy, higher education, religion, media, and disinformation campaigns to extend its reach. The Houses of Russia, established to promote language and culture, are viewed by some analysts as propaganda hubs. Ivan Klyszcz, a researcher at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Estonia, describes them as anchor points for Kremlin influence networks. Programming includes documentaries supporting Russian-backed regimes in the Sahel and featuring Americans who claim to have fled hostility toward Moscow. Ukraine accuses these centers of contributing to the recruitment of African fighters, prompting several European governments to consider closing them due to propaganda concerns. In Sao Tome and Principe, a small island state historically aligned with the Soviet Union, a new House of Russia opened in September in a former physiotherapy clinic. Portraits of writers, athletes, and cosmonauts line the walls, while a photograph of Vladimir Putin dominates a room dedicated to learning Russian. An artificial intelligence-generated image at the entrance features the Soviet slogan of friendship among peoples. Higher education serves as another lever of influence. Approximately 37,000 African students currently study in Russia, nearly five times the number from 2010. This increase, driven by expanded scholarships, surpasses Cold War records when Moscow trained future elites from Angola, Ghana, and Namibia. Russian cultural centers continue to maintain networks among these alumni.