Russia enters another "Black August", and Putin tries to shove the crisis under the carpet

Russia enters another “Black August,” as Vladimir Putin attempts to push the crisis under the rug The month of August has long been associated with dramatic crises in Russian history, often referred to colloquially as the “Black August” or “August curse.” This term, rooted in national folklore, suggests that major upheavals tend to occur during this time. From political coups to economic collapses and military conflicts, August has repeatedly marked turning points in Russia’s modern past. The current period is no exception, with signs pointing toward yet another turbulent stretch for the country. In the late 1980s, hardline communists attempted a failed coup against Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, unleashing centrifugal forces that ultimately led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union. In August 1998, Russia faced a financial crisis that crippled its ability to repay domestic debt and caused the ruble to collapse. A year later, militants seized control of the southern republic of Dagestan, sparking the Second Chechen War, a conflict that propelled former KGB officer Vladimir Putin into power. He became president on December 31, 1999, after Boris Yeltsin unexpectedly handed over leadership. Yet even Putin, who cultivated an image of strength and stability, was not immune to the August curse. One of his early challenges came in August 2000, when the nuclear submarine Kursk sank with 118 sailors aboard. In August 2008, Russia invaded Georgia, showcasing a more aggressive foreign policy under Putin. Now, this summer appears to be shaping up as another difficult chapter for Russia. Progress in Ukraine has been minimal, while Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and large distribution centers have darkened skies over Russian cities. Long lines at gas stations and rumors of a new mobilization campaign have sparked frustration among Russians. Is this yet another Black August? Russian exile commentator Ilya Varlamov recently addressed the question, stating that historical disasters recurring in August were “natural coincidences.” However, he added that many Russians approach the month with apprehension, especially now, as the country faces deepening difficulties. Fuel shortages have returned, prices continue to rise without showing signs of stabilizing, and the ruble continues to weaken. Upcoming elections loom, and uncertainty about what lies ahead adds to public anxiety. Varlamov also cited recent statements from a prominent Russian economist warning that Moscow is confronting a “social crisis,” losing ground both technologically and economically on the global stage. He emphasized that Russia is unable to win the war of attrition against Ukraine, which is supported by the West. Even the Kremlin-aligned tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets has acknowledged traditional August fears, though it sought answers in astrology. The paper noted that this month will see a lunar eclipse, although it will not be one of the largest. It warned that the moon will appear opposite Pluto, an astrological sign linked to catastrophes. According to the article, such an alignment could lead to social shifts, political changes in relations with neighbors, and internal unrest. It predicted an increase in accidents, heightened sadness, and frequent breakdowns, including nervous disorders. Despite these ominous forecasts, Putin has continued to project his usual aura of confidence. Speaking earlier this week about infrastructure and development projects, the head of the Kremlin acknowledged the economic damage inflicted by Ukrainian attacks on warehouses of the online retail giant Wildberries. While he did not name the company directly, he downplayed the long-term impact of the strikes. “It is clear that these attacks cause harm, this is obvious, I understand that,” he stated. “But they will not have lasting consequences.”