Republicans’ Chances of Flipping New Hampshire Senate Seat—Poll

Republicans see the New Hampshire Senate race as a key opportunity to gain ground in this year’s midterm elections, but new polling suggests Democratic Representative Chris Pappas holds a strong position in the race. The St. Anselm College poll, released this week, shows Pappas leading both Republican candidates, former Senator John Sununu and former Senator Scott Brown, in a general election matchup. Pappas currently represents New Hampshire’s 1st Congressional District and is considered the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination against progressive challenger Karishma Manzur. The race for the Senate seat opened after Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen announced she would retire following her term, creating a vacancy in a state that leaned Democratic in the 2024 presidential election. Former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won New Hampshire by three points in that contest, highlighting the state’s tendency to decide races by small margins. While New Hampshire has historically supported Democrats in federal races over the past decade, the open seat presents a rare opportunity for Republicans to challenge the majority. The St. Anselm College poll, conducted August 17–18 among 1,411 likely voters, found Pappas holding a 7-point lead over Sununu, 48 percent to 41 percent, and a 12-point edge over Brown, 49 percent to 37 percent. In the Democratic primary, Pappas also maintained a significant lead over Manzur, 59 percent to 28 percent. On the Republican side, Sununu led Brown by 30 points, 54 percent to 24 percent. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. Other recent polls have similarly indicated Pappas' dominance, though some show tighter races. A Peak Insights survey, sponsored by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, found Pappas ahead by just one point, 43 percent to 42 percent, based on responses from 500 likely voters. This poll, conducted June 24–27, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Meanwhile, a University of New Hampshire poll, which surveyed 2,232 likely voters June 18–23, showed Pappas with a 3-point lead over Sununu, 47 percent to 44 percent, and a 14-point lead over Brown, 52 percent to 38 percent. That poll carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. Earlier this year, an Emerson College poll revealed Pappas maintaining a narrow lead over Sununu, 45 percent to 44 percent, and a 9-point advantage over Brown, 48 percent to 39 percent. That survey included responses from 1,100 likely voters during March 21–23, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. Despite these varying results, forecasters such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consistently rate the race as leaning Democratic, indicating a strong likelihood of continued Democratic control. Prediction markets further support the Democratic outlook, showing high probabilities of the seat remaining in Democratic hands. As of Friday afternoon, Kalshi assigned Democrats an 89 percent chance of winning, while Polymarket placed their chances at 86 percent. These platforms function by allowing traders to bet on political outcomes, with prices reflecting aggregated real-money wagers and evolving expectations based on polling, fundraising, and candidate activity. The consistent favorability toward Democrats in both traditional polling and prediction markets underscores the challenges facing Republican contenders in this race.