Rafael Marín leads growth in Quintana Roo

Rafael Marín has emerged as the leading candidate in the internal race within Mexico’s ruling Morena party for the governorship of Quintana Roo, according to a state-level survey conducted by El Universal. The study reveals that Marín has maintained a steady upward trajectory in public recognition, with his name known by 45% of citizens as of August, up from 29% in June. His favorable opinions have also increased significantly, reaching 45.4% during the same period. This growth contrasts sharply with that of his main rivals, Ana Patricia Peralta and Gino Segura, whose support levels rose only slightly, by 2.9% and 3.3%, respectively. The survey highlights Marín's growing influence across different regions of Quintana Roo. In the southern region, his recognition has surged by 86%, with 62.1% of residents identifying him. In Cancún, his level of awareness climbed to 40.5%, while positive sentiment toward him jumped to 52.2%. In the Mayan area and the Riviera Maya, he recorded 51.1% and 42.3% recognition, respectively, with declining negative perceptions. These figures suggest that Marín is becoming a central figure within the party, capable of maintaining unity among its members. Despite this momentum, Marín faces competition from candidates who have invested heavily in media campaigns. Both Peralta and Segura maintain high visibility due to their advertising efforts. However, the data indicates they are experiencing signs of stagnation, despite their continued presence in the public eye. Their limited gains compared to Marín’s rapid ascent underscore the latter’s stronger appeal among voters. The survey also warns Morena of potential challenges should Marín fail to secure the nomination. A significant portion of his supporters, 47% in the Riviera Maya, 44.4% in the Mayan zone, and 43.4% in the south, are willing to switch their votes to other political parties if he does not become the official candidate. This suggests that Marín’s base could serve as a powerful force against the current administration if he is excluded from the final contest. Morena’s internal campaign has had a noticeable impact on the party’s overall standing in Quintana Roo. Support for the party has risen to 48.4%, while party loyalty has reached 57.0%. Meanwhile, the percentage of undecided voters has dropped dramatically to 26.2%. This shift is attributed in part to the strong approval rating of President Claudia Sheinbaum in the state, which provides a favorable environment for Marín’s candidacy. Her popularity appears to be directly contributing to his rising profile ahead of the official election polls and constitutional vote. The dynamics of the internal race have also prompted greater cohesion within Morena. The party’s leaders are increasingly aligned behind Marín, recognizing his ability to unify the organization and strengthen its electoral prospects. This alignment comes amid broader discussions within the party about the role of individual leaders in shaping the future direction of the movement. As the campaign progresses, the focus will likely remain on how effectively Marín can consolidate his lead and navigate the complexities of the political landscape in Quintana Roo.