"The path of people is not important": Ukrainian professor on Russian strategy and continuation of the war

A Ukrainian professor has described Russian strategy as being indifferent to civilian lives, stating that “Putin’s people are not important.” In an interview with Croatian media outlet Novi Dan, Professor Maxim Kamenjecki of the Institute for International Relations in Kyiv discussed Russia's ongoing military tactics and the implications for Ukraine’s defense capabilities. The professor highlighted the recent announcement by Ukraine and nine other countries forming a coalition aimed at protecting Europe from ballistic missiles. This initiative builds upon Ukraine’s experience over more than four years of defending against a full-scale Russian invasion. President Zelensky stated that within the next 12 months, Ukraine and its partners could jointly develop a cost-effective system for mass production of projectiles, enabling European nations to build their own anti-ballistic capabilities and offer them to other countries in need of protection. Kamenjecki pointed out that technologically advanced nations such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom have yet to develop effective anti-missile systems, which he called essential. He noted that while the U.S. has reduced its capacity to provide certain critical components, such as guidance systems, for missile technology, Japan produces only 30 units annually due to reliance on American parts. He added that former U.S. president Donald Trump had promised Ukraine the ability to manufacture rockets independently, though this would require acquiring the necessary guidance systems from the U.S., presenting a challenge. He also commented on the French government’s decision to allow Kyiv to produce French-made cruise missiles, precisely guided bombs, and air defense interceptors after Ukraine ordered new-generation air defense systems and combat aircraft from France, including Rafale jets. Kamenjecki criticized Russian officials, citing statements from Dmitriy Peskov, who accused the West of being a “war profiteer” and claimed that Russia started the war and would not stop. He emphasized that Russia continues to attack using ballistic missiles, noting that Ukraine lacks sufficient anti-missile defenses and that Russia uses modified S-400 systems as long-range weapons. Kamenjecki outlined the current situation in Ukraine, explaining that Russia continues to launch attacks with ballistic missiles due to insufficient defensive capabilities. He mentioned that recent strikes targeted storage facilities and vehicles, and that Ukraine remains vigilant despite these attacks. He described Russian tactics as involving the use of upgraded S-400 systems as ballistic missiles, indicating a strategic shift in how Russia approaches its offensive operations. Regarding potential peace talks, Kamenjecki suggested that Russia, under the current leadership, is unlikely to pursue diplomatic solutions. He argued that there is no alternative logic for Moscow, and that the question lies in whether Russia can sustain large-scale military operations without mobilizing forces following parliamentary elections. He noted that while Russia has more troops, the effectiveness of such actions remains uncertain. The professor further remarked that the land battle is extremely difficult for both sides, with Ukraine struggling to defend territory and Russia facing high casualties. He concluded that the ultimate goal in Putin’s mind is a balance of gains and losses, with human life holding little value. He also warned about the severe propaganda environment in Russia, emphasizing that when citizens lose access to alternative information sources, they begin to think according to the dictates of the regime. He stressed that one should never count on the civil society in Russia to resist such influence.