Putin still thinks he can win – despite the dangers to his country

Vladimir Putin continues to believe he can achieve his objectives in the war against Ukraine, despite mounting risks to Russia's stability and future, according to recent assessments. As Ukrainian forces intensify attacks on critical infrastructure and command centers supporting Russia’s military operations, the focus remains on whether Kyiv can leverage these gains into a favorable peace agreement. The primary aim of Ukraine and its European allies is to secure a resolution that avoids major territorial concessions, such as the cession of northwest Donetsk or restrictions on Ukraine’s NATO aspirations. However, indications suggest that Putin remains steadfast in his position, with no signs of shifting toward compromise. The persistence of Putin’s stance is attributed to several factors rooted in the structure of Russia’s political system. His authoritarian rule, coupled with growing international isolation, has created an environment where he receives information aligned with his worldview. This dynamic played a crucial role in the decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022, and there is no evidence that this pattern has altered. Additionally, Putin operates within a framework of minimal domestic pressure, shielded by his security apparatus. Public dissent is suppressed, and elite factions remain cautious about openly opposing him, fearing repercussions. A consistent theme in Putin’s approach to Ukraine is his refusal to acknowledge error or retreat. Over the past two decades, his overarching objective, reclaiming Ukraine for Russia, has remained unchanged. This mindset has driven a series of actions, from covert influence campaigns to overt military interventions. Initially, Russia sought to exert control through economic incentives and diplomatic pressure. When these methods proved ineffective, and Ukraine began moving closer to European integration, Moscow escalated its tactics, leading to the annexation of Crimea and the conflict in the Donbas region. This sequence culminated in the full-scale invasion of 2022, which further distanced Ukraine from Russian influence. Despite the escalating costs of prolonged conflict, Putin appears to maintain confidence in his strategy. He perceives a potential shift in European politics, believing that populist movements could lead to the ousting of centrist governments. This scenario would weaken the collective resolve of Western nations to support Ukraine. At the same time, Putin misjudges the strength and unity of Ukrainian society, underestimating the resilience of its population. While internal debates occasionally surface regarding leadership, public support for President Volodymyr Zelensky remains robust, particularly in response to external pressures. Another factor influencing Putin’s determination is his perception of the battlefield. Although Ukraine continues to seek sustainable solutions for maintaining its military capabilities, the rapid advancement of robotic technologies has significantly altered the tactical landscape. These developments have enhanced Ukraine’s ability to conduct complex operations, potentially undermining Russia’s traditional advantage in firepower and logistics. Despite this, Putin’s strategic outlook seems undeterred, suggesting a continued reliance on outdated assumptions about military superiority. The implications of Putin’s unwavering stance extend beyond immediate military outcomes. They signal a broader resistance to change, rooted in both personal conviction and systemic constraints. As the war drags on, the risks to Russia’s economy, social cohesion, and global standing grow. Yet, the absence of a clear turning point suggests that the current trajectory may persist, shaped by the interplay of ideological rigidity and geopolitical miscalculations. The coming months will likely reveal whether these patterns continue or whether new realities compel a reassessment.