Police and the Constitutional Guard: What to expect in the event of a right-wing extremist takeover

The AfD’s recent surge in support, rising from 41 to 42 percent, then to 43 percent, has raised concerns among officials and civil society groups in Saxony-Anhalt. The party’s land-based branch has been classified by the state’s constitutional protection agency as engaging in clearly right-wing extremist activities. Many fear that members of this party could form the next regional government, which would come into power following the regional legislative elections on September 6. While the outcome remains uncertain, the potential implications of such a scenario have sparked intense debate over how quickly a region might transition toward an authoritarian surveillance state and whether current safeguards can prevent such a shift. The AfD's candidate for Saxony-Anhalt has proposed replacing up to 200 public servants, a move that could significantly alter the composition of local institutions. In a coalition government, such changes might be more difficult to implement, but in a one-party administration, these positions could be swiftly filled with loyalists. However, many roles within the administrative structure are protected by strict tenure rules and formal dismissal procedures, making large-scale replacements challenging. This dynamic raises questions about the extent to which political influence can shape institutional structures under different governance models. Markus Thiel, professor of public law specializing in police law at the German Police University in Muenster, highlights the strategic importance of political appointments in key agencies. He notes that in most federal states, top leadership positions in police headquarters are held by non-political officers. In Saxony-Anhalt, however, there are very few politically appointed officials listed in the state’s civil service regulations. These include senior secretaries, the president and vice-president of the State Office for Administration, the head of the press and information office, and the director of the constitutional protection agency. Changing the head of the constitutional protection agency, for instance, is relatively straightforward for a government, especially given the existing legal framework allowing for such transitions. Since 2019, Jochen Hollmann has served as the head of the constitutional protection agency in Saxony-Anhalt. During his tenure, the agency classified the AfD’s regional branch as clearly right-wing extremist. This classification has drawn criticism from former officials, including Jörg Müller, who previously led the constitutional protection agency in Brandenburg. Müller described the possibility of the AfD gaining control of the intelligence services as a “worst-case scenario” for all constitutional protection officers in Germany. Such a scenario would represent a major threat to democratic norms and the rule of law. Replacing police personnel proves more complex due to the nature of their appointment and tenure. While the head of the regional police force is not a politically appointed official, mid-level and lower-level staff can be subject to internal transfers, promotions, or disciplinary actions. Thiel explains that these mechanisms allow for gradual reshaping of the workforce, potentially leading to the appointment of individuals aligned with an authoritarian agenda. Although affected parties could challenge such decisions through administrative courts, the process is time-consuming, even in an independent judiciary. Over time, this could result in a steady replacement of personnel with those perceived as supportive of the ruling ideology. There is also the risk of voluntary resignation among public servants who find themselves unable to work under an authoritarian regime. Such departures could further weaken the institutional capacity to resist ideological shifts. If widespread, this could lead to a “thinning out” of democratic forces within the bureaucracy, reducing the ability of public institutions to function independently of political pressure. These developments underscore the critical role of constitutional protections and the need for robust oversight mechanisms to safeguard democratic governance against the encroachment of authoritarian practices. As the election approaches, the focus remains on how these dynamics might unfold and what measures can be taken to ensure the integrity of public institutions.