Police and the Constitutional Guard: What to expect in the event of a right-wing extremist takeover

The AfD’s recent surge in support, rising from 41 to 42 percent, then to 43 percent, has raised concerns among officials in Saxony-Anhalt. The state's AfD branch has been classified by the local constitutional protection agency as having right-wing extremist tendencies. Many fear that members of this party could form the next regional government, which would take office following the regional elections on September 6. While the outcome remains uncertain, the potential implications of such a scenario have sparked alarm. The AfD’s candidate for Saxony-Anhalt has proposed replacing up to 200 civil servants, a move that could significantly reshape the administrative structure if the party gains power. In a single-party government, ministers would likely appoint loyalists to key positions. However, many roles within the lower levels of administration remain protected by civil service status and strict dismissal rules, making large-scale replacement difficult. This creates a complex landscape where political influence can be limited by institutional safeguards. Markus Thiel, professor of public law with expertise in police law at the German Police University in Muenster, highlights the strategic importance of political appointments within police leadership. He notes that in most federal states, few top-level police posts are held by politically appointed officials. In Saxony-Anhalt, these positions include the head of the State Office for Constitutional Protection, a role currently occupied by Jochen Hollmann since 2010. If the AfD were to gain control, Hollmann might face removal, given his classification of the party as right-wing extremist during his tenure. Thiel explains that while replacing the head of the constitutional protection agency is relatively straightforward, changing police personnel proves more challenging. Although the chief of police in Saxony-Anhalt is not a political appointment, long-term strategies such as promotions, transfers, or disciplinary actions could gradually shift staffing toward individuals aligned with authoritarian governance. These measures, though time-consuming, could steadily alter the composition of critical institutions. Legal challenges against such changes could arise, but they would require lengthy court proceedings even under independent judicial oversight. Thiel warns that over time, these processes could enable the gradual installation of regime-supporting officials in influential roles. This process, he calls “Drangsalierungspotenzial,” reflects the risk of systematic erosion of democratic norms through incremental policy shifts. Additionally, some civil servants might resign voluntarily due to ethical objections or discomfort with working under an authoritarian regime. Such voluntary departures could further weaken institutional resistance, leading to a possible “thinning” of democratic structures within the bureaucracy. Meanwhile, AfD leader Björn Höcke has called for the abolition of the constitutional protection agencies, arguing that they serve as tools for suppressing opposition. His stance aligns with broader ideological goals that challenge Germany’s democratic framework. Critics argue that such policies would undermine the very mechanisms designed to safeguard constitutional order and protect civil liberties. As the election approaches, the focus remains on voter behavior and the performance of other parties, particularly the Greens and the BSW, whose entry into the legislature remains uncertain. Despite these variables, the potential for a shift toward authoritarian governance continues to dominate discussions among analysts and security officials. The coming weeks will determine whether the current trajectory holds or whether the political landscape in Saxony-Anhalt evolves in unexpected directions.