(COMMENTARY) The rules of the wolf

In late June 2026, Serbian President Aleksander Vučić made a significant announcement during a rally organized by his ruling party, the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS). He stated that he would resign from his position within a few weeks, marking a pivotal moment in Serbia’s political landscape. This decision comes as his presidential term is set to expire next year, and under the country's constitution, he is ineligible to seek another term after serving two mandates. However, Vučić’s resignation does not indicate a complete withdrawal from power but rather a strategic move to maintain influence over the political process.

Vučić’s announcement was met with mixed reactions. On one hand, it signaled a potential shift in the political dynamics of Serbia, where his leadership has been characterized by centralized control and a strong emphasis on personal authority. On the other hand, it raised questions about the timing and implications of such a move. The president hinted at leading his party’s list in early parliamentary elections, which could be called soon. While he did not specify when these elections might occur, the suggestion implies they could take place in the autumn, possibly before the end of the year.

The context surrounding Vučić’s decision is deeply rooted in the ongoing social unrest in Serbia. The protests began in November 2024 following the tragic collapse of a canopy at a train station in Novi Sad, which resulted in the deaths of 16 people. This incident sparked widespread outrage among the public, particularly among young people, who have been at the forefront of the demonstrations. Students have been blocking universities, living in them, and demanding accountability for the tragedy, along with calling for early elections. Their movement, known as "Students Win," has gained considerable traction and support, challenging the existing regime.

Vučić’s regime has been described as authoritarian, illiberal, and based on a cult of personality centered around himself. His leadership style has been marked by a concentration of power, where decisions are primarily made by him alone, despite constitutional provisions that limit such centralization. This has led to criticism from both domestic and international observers, who view his governance as undemocratic and oppressive.

The timing of Vučić’s announced resignation also appears politically calculated. By stepping down, he may aim to avoid direct confrontation with the student-led opposition while still retaining influence over the political machinery. His strategy involves using the upcoming elections to consolidate power further, potentially undermining the opposition by forcing them into premature campaigns without adequate preparation time. According to electoral laws, there must be a minimum of 45 days between the announcement of elections and their conduct, allowing for a window of opportunity for Vučić to maneuver strategically.

Following his resignation, the interim presidency will fall to Ana Brnabić, the current president of the National Assembly. She will serve until new presidential elections are held, which could see her as a candidate. However, Vučić’s history of making similar announcements raises doubts about the sincerity of this particular resignation. Nevertheless, given the approaching expiration of his mandate, this move carries greater weight than previous statements.

Rektor of the University of Belgrade, Vladan Đokić, has emerged as a prominent figure opposing Vučić’s rule. Unlike other university rectors who have complied with government pressures, Đokić has consistently supported the students' cause. His stance positions him as a potential rival to Vučić, should the latter attempt to retain influence through political maneuvers. However, Vučić remains a formidable figure in Serbian politics, backed by a majority of media outlets and having mastered the art of political manipulation.

As the situation unfolds, the coming months will be crucial in determining whether Vučić’s resignation marks a genuine transition towards democratic reforms or merely a tactical retreat. The upcoming parliamentary elections and the subsequent political developments will provide clearer insights into the future direction of Serbia’s governance. Meanwhile, the student-led movement continues to gain momentum, reflecting a broader societal demand for change and accountability.