How fast would a marathon run by Tadej Pogacar be?

A Slovenian long-distance runner could earn €1,500 annually through marathon competitions, according to reports. Jan Kokalj, who set a new national record in the half-marathon with a time of 1:01:57 at the World Road Racing Championships in Copenhagen in September, will make his debut on the 42-kilometre distance during the Ljubljana Marathon this Sunday. His performance suggests he could qualify for the 2028 Olympics. The Ljubljana Marathon has become a key opportunity for Slovenian athletes to compete and earn prize money, unlike major European races where African runners typically dominate. According to Svetlan Vujasin, a veteran athletics coach, Slovenia lacks the calibre of athletes once seen in the past, such as Mirko Vindiš and Roman Kejžar. He noted that while recreational running has grown in popularity, elite long-distance running requires years of training and sacrifice. Younger athletes today run 10 kilometres in around 32 minutes, which was achievable for him in his youth, though he did not consider himself a talent. Roman Kejžar, the current national marathon record holder with a time of 2:11:50 since 2000, explained that becoming a top marathon runner requires specific physical traits and consistent high-level performances over shorter distances. He added that few Slovenians choose to pursue marathons due to the long-term commitment required and the lack of financial incentives compared to other sports. The Ljubljana Marathon offers €1,500 for winners and additional prizes for top results, providing some financial support for local athletes. Primož Kobe, the previous record holder of the Ljubljana Marathon with a time of 2:17:03, mentioned he aims to improve upon his result this year. However, securing lucrative contracts for marathon runners remains challenging, as sponsorships often focus on other disciplines within athletics. Kejžar highlighted that contracts are usually tied to rankings in Hungarian tables, which are less favourable for long-distance runners. As a result, athletes like Vid Botolin and Jan Kokalj deserve better deals based on their performances. Andreas Leknessund, a Norwegian cyclist, recently completed a half-marathon in 1:15:24, achieving an average pace of three minutes and 34 seconds per kilometre. This performance would have placed him 24th at the Ljubljana Marathon, behind two amateur cyclists, Primož Porento and Luka Tavčar. His speed raises questions about how quickly Tadej Pogačar, one of cycling's top athletes, might perform in a marathon.