Parliamentary elections in Ethiopia: clear victory for the incumbent

In a decisive parliamentary election held in Ethiopia, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party (PP) emerged victorious with an overwhelming majority. According to the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), the PP secured 438 out of 486 seats in the House of Peoples' Representatives. This result, announced after three weeks of counting, confirms the dominance of Abiy Ahmed’s political coalition, which has ruled the country since 2018. The election took place on June 1, with more than 40 million people participating out of a total of 54 million registered voters. However, due to ongoing conflicts and security concerns, 143 polling stations were closed, primarily in the northern regions of Tigray and Amhara, as well as parts of Oromia.

Despite the absence of voting in certain areas, the PP’s victory appears to be uncontested. With over 90% of the contested seats secured, the party faces little opposition. More than 40 parties participated in the election, but many lacked the financial resources necessary to mount a serious challenge. The largest opposing party, Ezema, fielded 293 candidates, significantly fewer than the PP’s 461. In some districts, the PP was unopposed entirely, further reinforcing its dominance.

The election results reflect a continuation of Abiy Ahmed’s political trajectory, marked by both progress and controversy. When he came into power in 2018, he was hailed as a reformist leader, promising greater democracy and reconciliation within Ethiopia. His early tenure saw the release of political prisoners, the lifting of bans on opposition parties, and efforts to improve women’s participation in politics. These actions earned him international recognition, culminating in his receipt of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 for brokering peace with Eritrea after decades of hostility.

However, Abiy’s leadership has also been associated with significant challenges. Between 2020 and 2022, Ethiopia experienced a brutal civil war in the northern Tigray region, where the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) clashed with the federal government. The conflict resulted in an estimated 600,000 deaths and displaced millions of people. The war has left deep scars on the nation and raised questions about Abiy’s ability to maintain stability and unity.

The decision not to hold elections in parts of Tigray and Amhara underscores the ongoing tensions in these regions. In Tigray, the conflict with the central government remains unresolved, and the area continues to experience instability. In Amhara, clashes have occurred between federal forces and local militias, while in Oromia, the presence of the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) has contributed to unrest. These regional conflicts have complicated the electoral process and highlighted the fragility of national cohesion under Abiy’s rule.

Abiy Ahmed’s vision for Ethiopia includes ambitious economic projects aimed at positioning the country as a regional powerhouse. One such project is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), completed in 2023, which provides electricity to Ethiopia and positions the country as a major green energy exporter in East Africa. Additionally, construction is underway on the Bishoftu International Airport near Addis Ababa, which is projected to become one of Africa’s largest airports and a crucial hub for trade and travel.

As the new parliamentary session begins, Abiy Ahmed is expected to consolidate his authority further. With the PP holding a vast majority, the government is likely to continue implementing policies aligned with Abiy’s agenda. However, the continued instability in northern Ethiopia raises concerns about the long-term prospects for peace and development. Analysts suggest that the next five years will be critical for determining whether Abiy can deliver on his promises of stability, economic growth, and national unity.

International observers remain divided on Abiy’s leadership. While some praise his efforts to modernize Ethiopia and resolve longstanding disputes, others criticize his handling of the Tigray conflict and the lack of political pluralism. As Ethiopia moves forward, the success of Abiy’s administration will depend on its ability to address regional conflicts, ensure inclusive governance, and foster sustainable development across all parts of the country.