Palestinians' support for armed struggle and Hamas drops, poll shows

Palestinian support for armed struggle has fallen significantly over the past year, according to a new opinion poll released this month. The Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, based in Ramallah, conducted the survey across both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. It follows President Mahmoud Abbas’s announcement of presidential and legislative elections scheduled for November 2027. The findings reveal a shift in public sentiment toward peaceful negotiation as the preferred path to achieving statehood and ending the Israeli occupation. The survey indicates that 27 percent of respondents now favor armed struggle as the most effective means to secure an independent Palestinian state, down from 41 percent in October. In contrast, 44 percent of participants support negotiations, up from 36 percent a year earlier. While the overall preference for armed struggle has decreased, opinions on its effectiveness remain divided. Half of the respondents believe it has been effective, while the other half argue it has caused devastation in Gaza and the West Bank. The conflict in Gaza, which began after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israel, has left the territory in ruins. Over 73,000 Gazans have died, with rights organizations estimating the toll could be even higher due to the large number of unaccounted bodies buried beneath rubble. This ongoing crisis has profoundly affected public perceptions of armed groups and their leaders. Confidence in Hamas’s ability to represent Palestinians has dropped from 41 percent to 28 percent over the past 10 months. More than 40 percent of respondents claim that neither Hamas nor its rival, Fatah, deserves to lead the Palestinian cause. Public dissatisfaction with President Mahmoud Abbas has reached alarming levels. Eighty percent of those surveyed want him to resign, and his approval rating has fallen to 18 percent, compared to 21 percent in October. The Palestinian leadership faces mounting criticism from both its citizens and the international community. Many see Abbas as ineffective in advancing peace efforts or addressing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Among the most popular figures in the poll is Marwan Barghouti, an imprisoned activist known for his opposition to Israeli policies. He received 39 percent of the votes as a potential successor to Abbas, surpassing the current president and other candidates. Despite being incarcerated since 2002, Barghouti maintains widespread support, with 54 percent of the 1,270 respondents ranking him above Abbas and Khalil All Hayya, who recently became Hamas’s political leader. The survey also highlights skepticism regarding upcoming elections. Just under half of respondents believe the November 2027 parliamentary vote will occur as planned, while two-thirds suspect it will lack fairness and transparency. Hamas has stated it intends to participate in the elections, though many Palestinians remain unconvinced of its legitimacy. International recognition of the Palestinian state has increased, with over 80 percent of UN member states now officially acknowledging Palestine. Countries such as Canada, the United Kingdom, France, and Australia joined this trend last year. This growing diplomatic support puts additional pressure on the Palestinian Authority to implement reforms and improve governance. Khalil Shikaki, director of the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, emphasized that the success of the elections hinges on continued international pressure. “As long as the pressure that led Abbas to take this step continues, it will happen,” he remarked. The future of Palestinian politics appears increasingly uncertain, shaped by shifting public opinion, internal divisions, and external pressures.