Pakistan’s Kashmir votes: Why the election hinges on 12 disputed seats

Pakistan-administered Kashmir opened its first round of local legislative elections on Monday under heightened security amid ongoing violence and political tension. The vote, part of a three-phase schedule, marks the latest step in a volatile political landscape shaped by months of protests and clashes. Over 3.8 million registered voters in the disputed Himalayan region are eligible to cast ballots, though the election is widely viewed as a test of security following weeks of unrest. The protests, initially focused on issues such as subsidized flour and lower electricity prices, evolved into broader demonstrations demanding structural changes, including the abolition of 12 assembly seats reserved for Kashmiri refugees. These demands led to violent confrontations between protesters and security forces, resulting in the deaths of nearly 40 individuals since early June. In response, authorities declared an unofficial state of emergency, suspending mobile and internet services across most of the territory. This disruption has significantly impacted political campaigning, forcing candidates to rely on traditional methods such as door-to-door outreach and community gatherings. In Mirpur district, the first area to hold its vote, turnout appeared limited due to the sweltering summer weather. Candidates expressed frustration over the lack of digital tools to engage voters, noting that internet restrictions hindered their ability to communicate with constituents. Independent candidate Malik Alauddin, for example, adapted his strategy to focus on rural areas, emphasizing face-to-face interactions to compensate for the communication gap caused by the digital blackout. The Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), the primary force behind the protests, was officially banned by the local government in June under anti-terrorism laws. Despite this, the movement's leaders continue to organize from sit-in camps in Rawalakot, the administrative hub of Poonch division, where tensions remain high. JAAC has called for a boycott of the elections, arguing that the 12 refugee seats, reserved for Kashmiri refugees living in Pakistan, are used by major political parties to influence the composition of the local legislature in their favor. The group’s leadership has either been detained or forced into hiding, yet its influence persists through grassroots mobilization. The election’s outcome is particularly contentious because of the unresolved dispute over the 12 refugee seats. While the government maintains that these seats cannot be removed without a constitutional amendment, JAAC insists that their abolition is essential to ensure fair representation. Legal scholars trace the origins of these seats back to the AJK government’s founding declaration of October 24, 1947, which Chaudhry Muhammad Ibrahim Zia, a former chief justice of the AJK Supreme Court, claims reflects the collective will of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. According to Zia, the seats have both historical and constitutional legitimacy, making them immune to accusations of unconstitutionality. Election commission data shows that the electorate in Pakistan-administered Kashmir has grown from 3.2 million in 2021 to over 3.8 million this year, reflecting demographic shifts and increased voter registration efforts. Within this total, the 12 refugee constituencies account for approximately 439,000 voters, highlighting the complex interplay between local and diaspora communities in shaping the region’s political future. As the second phase of voting approaches, with Muzaffarabad division set to go to the polls on August 2, the situation remains fluid, with security forces maintaining a tight grip on the region while opposition groups continue to challenge the legitimacy of the electoral process.