Population decline in eastern Germany deepens demographic and political divisions

The population decline in eastern Germany has deepened both demographic and political divides within the country. Over the past 35 years since German reunification, the total population of Germany has increased by 3.8 million—approximately five percent—primarily due to immigration. However, this growth contrasts sharply with the situation in five federal states that were once part of East Germany, excluding Berlin. These regions have experienced a population decrease of 16 percent, according to reports from the BBC. The most significant drop was recorded in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, where the town of Oschersleben saw its population fall by 26 percent, as revealed by official data published last year.

Rural areas in eastern Germany are expected to continue experiencing population declines, driven by the combined effects of young and educated individuals leaving after reunification and low birth rates. According to projections by German demographers, the most severe drops are anticipated in less urbanized parts of the east, while Brandenburg stands out as an exception due to its proximity to Berlin. The Federal Statistical Office estimates that Germany as a whole will likely have fewer inhabitants by 2070, with all scenarios predicting continued population loss in the eastern regions outside of Berlin.

These demographic changes are linked to the growing support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which has been classified as a right-wing extremist organization by domestic intelligence services in Saxony-Anhalt. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, many companies in former East Germany struggled to adapt to a market economy, leading to numerous business failures or drastic reductions in operations. This economic hardship prompted mass migration towards the western part of the country, particularly among young, highly educated individuals and women.

Sociologist Katja Salomo from the University of Kassel, who grew up in a rural area of eastern Germany, notes that a second wave of migration beginning in this century was smaller in scale but particularly significant because it involved the departure of young and educated individuals. A lower number of women also contributed to a reduced number of children, further exacerbating the demographic decline. Today, the phenomenon known as "Kitasterben"—the closure of kindergartens due to a lack of children—is being observed in eastern Germany.

In Oschersleben, a town with approximately 19,000 residents including surrounding villages, Jan-Niklas Hustedt, born just weeks before the fall of the Berlin Wall, is trying to encourage the return of young families. After spending 13 years away from his hometown, he has returned and now highlights the need to combat the shortage of skilled labor. The population decline has led to a reduction in essential services such as shops, maternity wards, schools, and kindergartens. An especially challenging issue is the aging population, which requires social and healthcare services.

Despite Germany's recent influx of migrants and refugees from countries such as Ukraine, Syria, and Turkey, the majority have settled in large cities like Berlin and more urbanized western parts of the country. Germany simultaneously faces an overall aging population and low birth rate. Preliminary data indicate that the number of births last year was the lowest since 1946.

The ongoing demographic shifts are reshaping the socio-economic landscape of eastern Germany, creating stark contrasts between the more prosperous western regions and the struggling eastern territories. As rural areas face depopulation and service shortages, local leaders and community members are working to attract new residents and reverse the trend. Meanwhile, political movements like the AfD capitalize on these challenges, reflecting broader societal frustrations and divisions. The situation underscores the complex interplay between demographics, economics, and politics in post-reunification Germany.

The impact of these trends extends beyond regional disparities, influencing national policy discussions about immigration, economic revitalization, and social welfare. With the population forecast to shrink significantly over the coming decades, Germany must address these issues comprehensively to ensure sustainable development and stability across all regions. The challenge lies not only in reversing the population decline but also in fostering inclusive policies that can bridge the widening gaps between different parts of the country.

As efforts to revitalize eastern Germany continue, the focus remains on attracting investment, improving infrastructure, and enhancing quality of life to make these regions more appealing to potential residents. Local initiatives, supported by returning citizens like Hustedt, aim to create opportunities for younger generations and encourage family-friendly environments. However, the success of these endeavors depends largely on addressing underlying economic and social factors that have contributed to the region’s long-term struggles.

The demographic crisis in eastern Germany serves as a microcosm of broader European challenges related to aging populations, declining birth rates, and uneven regional development. While immigration has played a role in mitigating some of these issues nationally, the concentration of newcomers in urban centers has left rural and semi-rural areas in the east grappling with unique difficulties. The path forward requires coordinated action at multiple levels—from local communities to national policymakers—to ensure that no region is left behind in the pursuit of balanced and equitable growth.