Özgür Özel, mayors plan future in post-divide Turkish opposition

Özgür Özel, former leader of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP), has begun laying the groundwork for a new political entity, signaling a dramatic shift in the landscape of Turkish politics. Following his ouster from the CHP chairmanship in May, Özel has opted to form a separate party rather than contest the upcoming intra-party leadership vote. His decision comes amid growing discontent within the opposition ranks and a perceived lack of progress in reversing the CHP’s declining fortunes. The move has sparked speculation about the future direction of the opposition movement. Özel, once a key figure in the CHP’s resurgence during the 2024 local elections, has now turned his attention toward establishing a new political force. According to reports, the party, tentatively named “Istiklal” (“Independence”), is expected to be officially launched ahead of the 2028 presidential election. However, the new party faces logistical challenges, including the requirement to secure at least 3% of the vote in its first election to qualify for state financial support. Without such backing, Özel and his allies will need to rely on private contributions, a potentially precarious path given the current economic climate. Among the notable figures considered for joining Özel’s new endeavor is Mansur Yavaş, the popular Ankara mayor and a potential presidential candidate. Despite being mentioned in Özel’s recent speech, Yavaş has yet to make a public statement regarding his intentions. Similarly, mayors from Adana and Mersin, both of whom were called upon to consider joining the new party, have indicated their preference to remain within the CHP. Cemil Tugay, the mayor of Izmir, a stronghold of the CHP, has also reportedly chosen to stay with the party. Earlier on Wednesday, Özel met with members of his new party, including lawmakers who have remained loyal to him since his removal from the CHP leadership. These discussions took place alongside meetings involving Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the CHP’s reinstated chairman, who convened the party’s Central Executive Board. Kılıçdaroğlu, who had previously faced internal challenges from Özel, now finds himself in a position to consolidate power within the CHP. Özel’s decision to leave the CHP followed a period of internal conflict. Initially, he had sought to challenge Kılıçdaroğlu for the party leadership, believing he could win a new vote. However, as the process stalled and public sentiment shifted, Özel concluded that forming a new party was necessary to ensure continued influence. His remarks suggest a deep frustration with the CHP’s trajectory, particularly its failure to attract younger voters and its struggle to maintain relevance in a rapidly changing political environment. In a speech delivered earlier this week, Özel outlined his concerns about the CHP’s future. He criticized the party’s approach, arguing that its reluctance to embrace change risks alienating supporters. He pointed to declining voter turnout and a drop in public approval ratings, warning that further electoral losses could lead to a complete loss of faith in the democratic process. “People will not go into another local election with us if we continue like this,” he stated. “If we act this way, they will turn their backs on us.” As the situation unfolds, the implications for Turkish politics remain uncertain. With the possibility of a new opposition party emerging, the balance of power in the country could shift significantly. Whether Özel’s vision for a more radical alternative can gain traction remains to be seen. For now, the focus remains on the next steps in his political journey.