Ostracised since 2021, Myanmar’s generals are finding a warm embrace among neighbours

After more than five years of civil war, Myanmar’s military junta is achieving critical diplomatic wins despite ongoing violence and repression at home. Leader Min Aung Hlaing’s recent state visit to Thailand, marked by red carpets, military bands, and a smiling prime minister, represents a pivotal moment in his campaign for international recognition. The visit comes amid continued atrocities by the regime, which has systematically targeted civilians and suppressed dissent since the 2021 coup that overthrew the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Min Aung Hlaing, now styled as president, has made four foreign trips since assuming the role in April 2026, following fraudulent elections that excluded genuine political competition. His visits to India, China, Laos, and now Thailand underscore a growing regional acceptance of the junta, despite its brutal tactics. Thailand, a key player in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has lifted its ban on Myanmar’s participation in regional forums, signaling a shift in diplomatic posture. This move follows the junta’s alleged compliance with certain terms of the so-called Five-Point Consensus (5PC), though critics argue these commitments have gone unfulfilled. The 5PC, established in 2021, aimed to restore peace and democracy in Myanmar. It included provisions such as an immediate halt to violence and the release of political prisoners. However, since its inception, an estimated 100,000 people have died in the conflict, with approximately 20% of casualties attributed to military strikes on civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, places of worship, and public gatherings. Despite these figures, Thailand’s decision to engage with the junta suggests a pragmatic approach, prioritizing economic interests and strategic stability over adherence to humanitarian principles. Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul described the renewed engagement as a “calibrated re-engagement.” This characterization reflects a calculated effort to balance regional diplomacy while maintaining leverage over Myanmar’s leadership. Thailand’s proximity to Myanmar allows it to benefit from cross-border trade and security cooperation, factors that outweigh concerns over the junta’s human rights record. Meanwhile, China, which has long sought closer ties with Myanmar to secure access to the Indian Ocean via the proposed China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, has reinforced its support for the regime. Beijing’s collaboration with Moscow in supplying advanced military equipment further bolsters the junta’s position. India, another key neighbor, maintains a complex relationship with Myanmar. While it seeks to counterbalance Chinese influence, it also aims to stabilize its eastern borders. The junta’s alignment with China poses a challenge to India’s strategic goals, prompting cautious yet supportive interactions. These dynamics illustrate how regional powers are navigating a delicate geopolitical landscape shaped by historical tensions and contemporary interests. In preparation for the Thailand visit, the junta undertook symbolic gestures designed to enhance its image. Long-awaited photographs of Aung San Suu Kyi, released during her detention, showed her meeting with a representative of the International Committee of the Red Cross. Such moves were likely intended to mitigate negative perceptions of Thailand, particularly given the junta’s reputation for brutality. By presenting Suu Kyi as receiving care, the regime may have sought to deflect criticism and bolster its narrative of legitimacy. As the conflict persists, the international community remains divided. While the United States and the United Nations issue condemnations, tangible support for democratic forces in Myanmar remains limited. The junta, meanwhile, continues to consolidate power, leveraging regional alliances and external patronage. With each new diplomatic victory, the junta inches closer to securing global recognition, even as the cost of its actions grows ever higher for the civilian population.