Opposition in the lead, but Netanyahu is far from defeated

The Israel Defense Forces announced on Sunday that all land crossings between Israel and the occupied West Bank will remain closed throughout Tuesday’s parliamentary election. The military stated that Palestinian workers are prohibited from entering Israeli communities in Judea and Samaria and the Jordan Valley starting immediately, with exceptions made only for specific industrial zones and a limited number of approved areas. This decision follows a deadly attack by Palestinian gunmen near the city of Hebron on Friday, which resulted in the deaths of two Israeli soldiers and injuries to three others. The two suspected attackers, identified as men from Hebron, were killed during the incident. The restrictions arrive as tensions escalate in the territory, with Israeli forces conducting extensive operations that have displaced thousands of residents. The military operation intensified significantly over the weekend. On Saturday, Israeli troops entered Hebron and forcibly evicted approximately 2,000 people, some of whom were removed in the middle of the night. While the IDF cited figures around 2,000, Hebron Mayor Yousef al-Jabari told Al Jazeera that 2,200 people had been forced from their homes since the raids began on Friday. Defense Minister Israel Katz confirmed the displacement figure to the Israeli broadcaster Kan, stating that selected army units were currently operating in the area. Katz declared that the affected Palestinians would not be allowed to return to their neighborhoods until authorities had resolved all issues related to Hamas in Hebron. Footage shared online showed at least one entire street in the city appearing flattened due to demolitions of homes and businesses. Prior to the formal announcement of the worker bans, the military had already cordoned off Hebron, heavily restricting the movement of its roughly 200,000 residents. The army reported that it was operating in 40 areas across the West Bank on Friday and Saturday, with soldiers announcing evacuations via loudspeakers late into the night. Security forces, including the border police and intelligence services, carried out counter-terrorism operations in approximately 400 locations. Authorities reported apprehending around 40 suspects, including members affiliated with Hamas and the Islamic Jihad organization. Far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who oversees civilian affairs in the West Bank, stated that he personally ordered the immediate demolition of a row of structures described as illegal following the Friday shooting. The political climate surrounding these events is charged by upcoming elections. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a critical vote on Tuesday, which many observers view as a referendum on his leadership. In an interview with i24 television released on Saturday, Netanyahu threatened a "very big surprise" for the Palestinian Authority, which governs parts of the territory. He also vowed to extract a heavy price for the recent attack. However, Hebron Mayor al-Jabari suggested the military escalation was politically motivated, claiming the operation was driven by the elections and that Netanyahu and his ministers were attempting to secure votes from the far right and settler populations. Public reaction in Israel has been divided. Thousands of people gathered in Tel Aviv on Saturday for a large anti-government demonstration. The protest was organized by the October Council, a group established by families of victims and hostages taken during the Hamas attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Participants demanded accountability for the failure to prevent that initial attack, which triggered the war in Gaza. Leaders of four main opposition parties attended the rally, including Gadi Eisenkot, former chief of staff of the Israeli army and Netanyahu’s primary electoral rival. Recent polling data indicates a shift in public sentiment. A survey published by the newspaper Maariv, conducted by the Lazar Institute four days before the vote, showed the opposition bloc of four parties increasing its lead in the final days of the campaign. The research indicated that the opposition would secure 54 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while Netanyahu’s coalition of extreme right-wing and messianic parties would receive 48 seats. Forming a government requires a majority of 61 seats, though a minority government remains a possibility. The poll found that the Israeli public preferred Eisenkot to head the cabinet. These elections mark the first parliamentary vote since the October 7, 2023, Hamas assault and the subsequent start of the conflict in Gaza. Historical context highlights the severity of the current restrictions. Before the October 2023 attacks, more than 100,000 Palestinian workers held permits to enter Israel. Since then, only a small fraction of those permits have been restored. Israeli rights groups have criticized the practice of demolishing homes of suspected attackers as collective punishment. The Palestinian authorities have called for international pressure on Israel to protect civilians in the West Bank. Hamas praised the Friday attack but did not explicitly claim responsibility for carrying it out. The situation leaves the outcome of the election uncertain, with both sides engaging in high-stakes political and military maneuvers in the days leading up to the vote.