Not just Hormuz: why the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb changes everything for Africa

Tankers carrying Saudi Arabian crude oil have begun making U-turns in the Red Sea, raising concerns over global energy markets as tensions escalate in the region. The vessels, which were originally heading toward the Suez Canal, have diverted course following warnings from Houthi rebels in Yemen, who have threatened to target Saudi oil tankers. This shift has created uncertainty among traders and raised alarms about potential disruptions to supply chains, particularly in Africa, where many rely on shipments passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea. The situation unfolded after the Houthi group issued a formal maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia, backed by Iranian influence. The rebels warned that they would attack Saudi oil tankers unless the kingdom refrains from targeting Iranian energy infrastructure. In response, Saudi Arabia has redirected nearly 70% of its crude exports through the southern entrance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, near the port of Yanbu. This move has increased the strategic importance of the strait, which already serves as a critical route for global trade. Before the current crisis, approximately 12–15% of world maritime trade passed through this corridor, with around 40% of cargo moving between Europe and Asia. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, located between Yemen and Djibouti, is now under heightened scrutiny due to the growing threat of attacks. With the Gulf of Aden’s main shipping lane, Hormuz, effectively closed due to ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, the Red Sea has become a primary alternative for oil and goods transport. However, the increased vulnerability of this new route has led to rising insurance costs and operational risks for shipping companies. The frequency of threats and attacks has pushed the area into a high-risk zone, with insurers marking the region as increasingly dangerous. The implications extend beyond the Middle East. For African nations, the disruption of these vital routes has had severe consequences. Fertilizers needed for agriculture in Ethiopia, fuel for generators in Somalia, and grain supplies for cities like Nairobi all depend on the stability of these corridors. According to reports, the price of fertilizers in Africa has surged by over 35% in just one month, driven by the reduced availability of imports. The economic impact is felt across the continent, affecting food security and industrial operations. In addition, the rerouting of traffic has forced ships to take longer, more expensive paths around the southern tip of Africa, increasing transit times and costs. This has placed additional pressure on ports such as Lamu in Kenya, which have emerged as alternative hubs. However, this shift has not resolved the underlying issues. Instead, it has shifted the burden onto other regions, prompting calls for greater cooperation and investment in maritime security. Egypt and Eritrea have emphasized their sovereignty over the safety of the Red Sea, rejecting external interference in matters of national interest. As the situation continues to evolve, the international community faces mounting challenges in ensuring the stability of global energy and trade networks. The Red Sea, once a relatively secure passage, is now a focal point of geopolitical tension, with far-reaching consequences for economies and populations across the globe. The future of maritime trade in the region will likely depend on how effectively stakeholders can manage the escalating risks and maintain the flow of essential goods.