The storm system that formed over Furlania is moving towards the interior of Slovenia, a possible formation of supercells!

A powerful storm system forming over Friuli is moving toward the interior of Slovenia, raising concerns about the potential formation of supercells. The Agency for the Environment of the Republic of Slovenia (Arso) has issued a serious warning, urging caution as the country faces a dramatic weather shift after weeks of extreme heat and drought. The weather will be highly dynamic today and throughout the weekend, with such unstable conditions that all scenarios for severe weather are possible. A storm line already passes over Friuli, with a gusty impact from the north in the afternoon. Arso warns that a stronger storm line is approaching Slovenia from the west, which will soon reach western Slovenia. These storms will initially strike the west and southwest of the country, where local thunderstorms, some potentially intense, are likely. On the other side of the country, a band of local thunderstorms, including some possibly more intense ones, will sweep through from Austria into the northern and northeast parts of Slovenia. An orange alert has been issued for the northeastern part of the country due to the highest probability of local thunderstorms there. Morning rain and storms will bring the greatest amounts of precipitation to western and southern Slovenia. Wind gusts will mostly reach speeds around 50 km/h, though wind speeds up to 97 km/h were recorded at Ratitovc between 10:00 and 10:30. While this storm activity may not end immediately, a period of calm will follow shortly after the passage of this storm system. By midday, another area of storms developing in neighboring Austria is expected to move towards Slovenia. Stronger thunderstorms are not excluded anywhere else in the country. Keep monitoring forecasts, official warnings, and radar images of rainfall. The portal Ciklon.si warns of the worst-case scenario: “Such synoptic setup will create favorable conditions for the development of organized thunderstorm systems, including supercells, which can cause more intense weather phenomena.” A reader from Piran described a surprising storm, highlighting the sudden change in weather. Robert Sitar of the mentioned portal adds that during stronger storms, local thunderstorms could develop with strong wind gusts that locally could reach even gale force. These would be accompanied by heavy rainfall, hail, and thick fog. There is a significant risk of wind damage, lightning strikes, and flooding of small water bodies. Slovenia is currently experiencing one of its driest periods, with the latest drought report from Arso revealing critical data: much of the country is under exceptional drought conditions. The surface soil moisture balance shows alarming deficits. “To normalize the current extremely dry conditions, the country would need between 70 and 120 millimeters of additional rainfall,” the drought report states. Only slightly better conditions are observed along the coast, in the Notranjska and Dolenjska regions, where still between 30 and 65 millimeters of rain would be needed. Currently, rivers are critically low; hydrological low-water conditions are being recorded at about 40 percent of measuring stations across the country. The most severely affected areas are the Mura River and the upper course of the Soča River. Groundwater levels are almost universally in a dry state, except in the Koroška and Goriska regions. Due to the drought, large fire danger remains in the southern half of Slovenia. Any lightning strike during today’s storms could ignite a fire instantly. What awaits the weekend? Refreshment, but at what cost? The heatwave will end with the passage of the front.