Net forex inflow rises 33% to $20.3bn in Q1 2026

Nigeria recorded a net foreign exchange (forex) inflow of $20.33 billion in the first quarter of 2026, marking a 33.8 percent increase compared to the $15.19 billion recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025. This figure was released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in its Q1 2026 Quarterly Economic Report. The rise in net forex inflow was attributed to higher contributions from autonomous sources, which saw a notable surge in their contribution to the country's foreign exchange reserves. The CBN also noted that the total aggregate forex inflow for Q1 2026 reached $31.34 billion, reflecting a 13.26 percent increase from the $27.67 billion recorded in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, forex outflows decreased by 11.78 percent to $11.01 billion, down from $12.48 billion in Q4 2025. These figures highlight a shift in the balance of forex transactions, indicating improved inflows and reduced outflows. In detail, forex inflow through the CBN dropped slightly by 3.77 percent to $10.20 billion, compared to $10.60 billion in the prior quarter. However, inflow through autonomous sources experienced a more substantial growth, increasing by 23.90 percent to $21.15 billion from $17.07 billion. This divergence underscores the growing role of non-bank entities in contributing to Nigeria's foreign exchange earnings. On the outflow side, forex outflow through the CBN rose by 4.08 percent to $7.40 billion, while outflow through autonomous sources fell sharply by 32.77 percent to $3.61 billion. These contrasting trends suggest a complex interplay between different channels of financial activity within the country. As a result of these changes, autonomous sources contributed a net forex inflow of $17.53 billion in Q1 2026, surpassing the $11.71 billion recorded in Q4 2025. In contrast, the CBN's net forex inflow for the quarter stood at $2.80 billion, a decline from the $3.48 billion recorded in the previous quarter. Separately, Nigeria's crude oil exports played a significant role in bolstering the nation's foreign exchange earnings. Between January and June 2026, the country exported an estimated 182.2 million barrels of crude oil valued at N24.02 trillion, translating to approximately $17.60 billion at an exchange rate of N1,365 to the US dollar. This represents a major component of the country's foreign exchange inflow, highlighting the ongoing importance of the oil sector to Nigeria's economy. Production data revealed that Nigeria produced around 263.65 million barrels of crude oil during the six-month period, with a market value of $25.41 billion. Monthly production fluctuated, starting at 45.26 million barrels in January before dropping to 36.68 million barrels in February. Production recovered thereafter, reaching 47.43 million barrels in May and stabilizing at 46.80 million barrels in June. Crude exports mirrored the production trends, with the highest volume recorded in June at 33.30 million barrels. Export earnings varied throughout the period, ranging from $2.13 billion in January to $3.95 billion in April, with a cumulative total of $17.60 billion. These figures underscore the impact of global oil prices on Nigeria's export revenues. The increase in export earnings was primarily driven by elevated international crude prices, influenced by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Although prices eased in June, they remained above the initial levels of the year, maintaining the value of Nigeria's crude exports. The data also indicates that Nigeria exported approximately 69 percent of its crude production during the first half of 2026, leaving about 81.45 million barrels available for domestic use. This highlights the dual nature of the country's crude oil strategy, balancing export demands with local consumption needs.