Mps-Bpm, there's the idea of cascade fusion

Mps and Banco Bpm are reportedly considering a cascade merger, with Credit Agricole Italy indirectly involved. The idea comes amid speculation about potential mergers between Generali and Axa. This development follows Mps’s response to Intesa Sanpaolo's takeover offer, which was criticized by Mps management over pricing and other terms. The proposal for a cascade merger involving Mps, Banco Bpm, and potentially Credit Agricole Italy has been discussed among key figures such as Luigi Lovaglio, CEO of Mps, and Vittorio Grilli, president of Mediobanca. The plan emerged in response to Intesa Sanpaolo’s bid, which Mps rejected partly due to its price and the inclusion of 635 branches under Unipol. However, Mps expressed interest in an aggregation plan involving Banco Bpm, calling for a thorough review. The structure of this alternative proposal must adhere to tight timelines, and there is a notable background element that could draw political attention. Credit Agricole, already the largest shareholder of Banco Bpm with a 30% stake, might become the leading shareholder of a new group formed by merging Mps and Banco Bpm. According to simulations by Deutsche Bank, Credit Agricole could hold between 11% and 12% of the combined entity, which would include Anima funds and Generali holdings. Delfin, a Luxembourg-based holding company controlled by the Del Vecchio family, holds nearly 17.5% in Mps and is the second-largest shareholder in Generali, owning approximately 10%. It also holds 2.7% in Unicredit, making it a key player in Italian banking risks. Delfin has ties to France through its ownership of EssilorLuxottica, which includes French state entities like Bpifrance and Caisse des Dépots. Additionally, Delfin is undergoing a restructuring of shares among the Del Vecchio heirs, with Leonardo Maria working on financing an operation valued at €11 billion involving several banks, including two major French institutions: Credit Agricole and BNP Paribas. This situation may have implications for the influence of French interests in the proposed merger, which could be viewed favorably in Paris. Meanwhile, the potential merger between Mps and Banco Bpm appears to hinge more on the 13% stake held by Rocca Salimbeni via Mediobanca in Generali. This stake could shape the future direction of Generali, possibly towards large international insurance firms like Axa, which has long sought to acquire Generali. The decision-making process will likely involve the Minister of Economy, Giancarlo Giorgetti, who stated during a Senate hearing that the golden power applies even between Italian banks if economic and financial stability is at stake. As discussions continue, the outcome of these developments will depend on how regulatory bodies and stakeholders respond to the evolving scenario.