More candidates emerge in by-election that will test One Nation's popularity

The Secret Harbour by-election, set for August 29, is emerging as a pivotal moment for Western Australia’s political landscape, offering a critical test of One Nation’s growing influence and the resilience of both the Labor and Liberal parties. The contest, held in the outer suburban seat of Perth’s south, will determine whether the far-right One Nation can consolidate its gains in traditionally Labor-leaning areas, while also revealing the effectiveness of the state government’s response to mounting public discontent over economic and social issues. The by-election follows the unexpected resignation of long-serving Labor MP Paul Papalia, who stepped down in early July to care for a sick family member. Papalia, who represented the area for over 19 years, described his decision as a necessary shift toward prioritizing family over public service. His departure triggered the need for a new election, marking the first such occurrence in the lower house since former Premier Mark McGowan resigned in 2023. Unlike the Legislative Council, where a vacancy can be filled by the next eligible candidate, a lower house seat requires a complete election, making this contest particularly significant. The electorate of Secret Harbour spans the outer suburbs between Rockingham and Mandurah, a region historically considered a Labour stronghold. However, recent trends suggest a potential shift in voter sentiment, especially among residents facing rising housing costs and financial strain. One Nation, known for its focus on economic hardship and anti-immigration rhetoric, has shown strength in similar constituencies, notably in South Australia earlier this year. Political analyst Ben Raue noted that Secret Harbour’s location, among the most remote parts of Perth, aligns with the types of areas where One Nation typically performs well. The Liberal Party, led by Basil Zempilas, has expressed concern over the possibility of a One Nation victory, though it views such an outcome as a strategic gain. Zempilas acknowledged that a loss for Labor would benefit his party, even if the seat were won by One Nation. This dynamic complicates the Liberal strategy, as they would need to secure preference votes from One Nation to ensure a win, potentially linking them to the minor party’s controversial stances on immigration and other divisive topics. Meanwhile, Labor, under Premier Roger Cook, has framed the race as a “fight for our lives,” emphasizing the stakes of retaining the seat amid a broader electoral challenge. The campaign will center on core issues such as housing affordability, cost of living, and government performance. With non-Labor parties unable to offer policy promises, the focus will shift to criticism of the current administration’s record. A notable point of contention is the lack of a train station at Karnup, a facility that Labor had initially pledged as part of its 2013 election platform. Residents are likely to hold the government accountable for unfulfilled commitments, further intensifying the pressure on both major parties to demonstrate tangible progress. Early voting begins on August 17, with polls open until August 29. Voters must be enrolled by July 21 to participate, and those registered will be required to cast ballots, either through early voting, postal mail, or on election day. Polling locations remain to be finalized, but the process is expected to proceed smoothly despite the heightened political tensions surrounding the contest. As the campaign unfolds, the outcome of the Secret Harbour by-election will serve as a barometer of shifting voter allegiances and the evolving political climate in Western Australia.