Locked, loaded ... and put on hold: Another bewildering Trump pivot on Iran

A new wave of violence erupted in the Middle East on Wednesday as the United States and Saudi Arabia conducted coordinated airstrikes against Iran-backed militant groups in Iraq, killing at least eight members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF). Simultaneously, Iran claimed to have intercepted three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and launched missile attacks on U.S. military installations in Jordan. These developments mark a sharp escalation in tensions that had briefly eased following a five-day lull in hostilities. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that the strikes targeted logistical and weapons storage sites in eastern Iraq used by Iran-backed militias to orchestrate drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities in the previous 72 hours. According to CENTCOM, the operation was carried out in response to the drone assaults, which had damaged critical infrastructure and disrupted production. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia emphasized that their actions were aimed at halting the flow of arms and support to groups aligned with Iran. CENTCOM issued a warning to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its allies, urging them to stop the attacks to prevent further military responses. In Iraq, the PMF reported that several of its headquarters were struck during the joint operation. The Nineveh provincial command stated that eight of its fighters were killed and four injured in the northern region, while similar reports emerged from the southern Basra province. Smoke and flames rose from multiple locations, with footage showing emergency services rushing to the affected areas. The attacks underscored the deep entanglement of regional actors in the ongoing conflict, with the PMF serving as a key proxy force for Iran’s influence in Iraq. Iran denied involvement in the drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities, calling accusations linking Tehran to such actions a “major miscalculation.” A senior Iranian defense official dismissed the claims, asserting that the country was not responsible for the attacks. Meanwhile, some Iraqi militias also refuted responsibility, suggesting instead that Houthi rebels in Yemen might have been behind the drone strikes. However, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an Iran-aligned group, did not explicitly deny the allegations, leaving room for speculation about their potential involvement. Separately, Iran claimed to have launched ballistic missiles at U.S. military bases in Jordan. CENTCOM confirmed that all incoming projectiles were intercepted, though details about the extent of damage or casualties remained unclear. This attack occurred just as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the White House, adding another layer of complexity to the already volatile situation. Iran’s IRGC also announced that its naval forces had halted three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, accusing them of violating maritime routes deemed unsafe and illegal. The claim could not be independently verified, but it highlights the growing concern over the security of global oil transit through this vital waterway. The renewed clashes have sent shockwaves through global markets, with oil prices surging more than $3 a barrel due to fears of further disruptions in energy supply. Diplomatic efforts are ongoing, with Oman proposing a Gulf-backed initiative to manage navigation through the Strait of Hormuz collectively. The U.S. has reiterated its commitment to protecting shipping lanes and maintaining stability in the region. As tensions continue to mount, the international community watches closely, aware that any misstep could lead to a broader conflict involving multiple regional powers.