Middle East Escalation Could Leave 11.7 Million More Women and Girls Facing Food Insecurity by End-2026

France releases 10 million barrels of diesel from its strategic reserves over three months in an effort to stabilize fuel prices. The move comes amid comparisons between the economic impacts of two major oil crises: the 1979 Iranian Revolution and the current geopolitical tensions involving Iran, which have disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts are examining whether the 2026 crisis has had a greater impact than the 1979 shock. The 1979 crisis began when Ayatollah Khomeini returned from exile and Iran became an Islamic Republic. Oil production plummeted from six million barrels per day to near zero. In November, Islamist students seized the U.S. embassy in Tehran, prompting the United States to increase its oil imports from abroad. At the time, the U.S. purchased 43 percent of its oil from foreign sources, leading to widespread panic and economic repercussions. In contrast, the 2026 crisis involves a war with Iran that has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil passes. Unlike 1979, the U.S. now produces more oil than it consumes. While American consumers face higher fuel prices, producers benefit, and European and Asian allies bear the brunt of the economic burden similar to what the U.S. endured in 1979. The cost to France differs significantly between the two periods. According to the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), the 1979 oil shocks cost France up to 3 percent of its national wealth, contributing to inflation rates exceeding 13 percent annually during 1980 and 1981. Despite salary indexing helping households cope, unemployment rose sharply. France accelerated its nuclear program in response. For 2026, INSEE estimates the economic loss at 0.2 to 0.3 percent of GDP. A stronger euro, nuclear power, and limited fuel price increases help mitigate the impact. However, households face challenges due to indexed wages that no longer keep pace with rising fuel costs. With reduced purchasing power, families can buy 20 percent less fuel and heating oil compared to 2025. Inflation is on the rise again. The risk of recession appears lower in 2026 compared to 1979. The Bank of France predicts 0.4 percent growth for 2026. Central banks are adopting measures reminiscent of the 1979 era, albeit on a smaller scale. The European Central Bank raised interest rates in June and September, as did the Federal Reserve, marking the first rate hikes since 2023. Borrowing costs for the U.S. government have reached record levels since 2007, while France approaches similar thresholds. A comparison suggests the 1979 crisis had a more severe economic impact on France than the 2026 situation. However, analysts caution that the long-term effects of the 2026 crisis remain uncertain. The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is causing food prices to rise, placing additional pressure on the livelihoods and household resources of millions of women and girls, according to a new analysis by UN Women. The organization warns that an additional 11.7 million women and girls could face food insecurity by the end of 2026, adding to the 208 million already affected. Women and girls represent 53 percent of the projected 22 million individuals facing increased food insecurity across 28 countries analyzed. Disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing energy, fertilizer, and transportation costs, making food more expensive. Combined with potential income and livelihood losses, these rising costs could make food harder to afford. Existing gender inequalities in employment and access to financial services leave many women with fewer resources to handle these economic shocks. Countries with larger populations see the greatest numbers of women and girls at risk, though some nations like South Sudan, Sudan, Haiti, Yemen, and Palestine face more concentrated risks due to overlapping vulnerabilities. In South Sudan, the additional number of women and girls at risk accounts for approximately 14 percent of the female population, by far the highest among the countries studied. In Lebanon, the figure is nearly 4 percent. In several countries, women and girls constitute a disproportionately high share of those facing food insecurity, including Afghanistan, Yemen, and Sudan. Employment patterns also influence food security. In Egypt, Iraq, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria, around 80 percent of women are not part of the labor force. In Afghanistan and Yemen, this percentage climbs to about 95 percent. Many working women are engaged in vulnerable jobs, particularly in regions like Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Haiti, Mali, and South Sudan. Access to financial services could offer a buffer, but many women lack such access. In Iraq, Lebanon, Pakistan, and Yemen, fewer than one in five women hold a bank or mobile money account. This limits their ability to save, receive remittances or cash assistance, or borrow safely when prices rise or incomes fall, increasing dependence on informal lenders, family members, or other household members, which can put their safety and protection at risk. UN Women urges an integrated approach combining food security efforts with broader strategies to address underlying issues affecting women and girls.