Meteorologist: Croatia is facing the most insidious weather extreme. It will change the schedule of life

A quiet but persistent weather phenomenon known as drought has been gradually affecting Croatia, marking itself as one of the most insidious extreme weather events. Following recent heatwaves and with another one looming over Western Europe, this creeping form of environmental stress is reshaping the country's climate patterns, altering seasonal rhythms, and challenging both coastal and inland communities. Unlike sudden storms or floods, droughts develop slowly, often going unnoticed until their effects become severe, much like cracks in walls that expand silently before becoming visible. In Croatia, drought is no longer just a meteorological occurrence—it has evolved into a symptom of deeper climatic changes. These shifts are influencing rainfall distribution, the timing of seasons, and even the safety of life along the coast and within the interior regions. The country is experiencing increasingly pronounced contrasts between areas affected by prolonged dry spells and others receiving brief but intense rainfalls and storms. This variability complicates efforts to predict and manage its impacts. Historically, drought has played a pivotal role in shaping human civilizations. It has driven migrations, forced societies to reconsider where they could live and what crops they could grow, and led to periods of famine and social upheaval. Drought does not respect political or geographical boundaries, making it a universal challenge that transcends borders and cultures. In history, major droughts have often marked turning points—disrupting agriculture, reducing food and water supplies, and compelling communities to adapt or relocate. Modern meteorological classifications define drought not as a single phenomenon but as a collection of interconnected types. According to the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), drought is typically characterized by extended periods of insufficient precipitation, inadequate water availability for societal and environmental needs, and unexpected dry conditions leading to significant hydrological imbalances. There are four main categories of drought: meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and socioeconomic. Meteorological drought refers to a lack of precipitation, while agricultural drought involves soil moisture deficiency critical for plant growth. Hydrological drought manifests in reduced river flow and declining groundwater levels. Socioeconomic drought occurs when demand for water exceeds available supply. Each type operates on different timescales and reflects distinct aspects of water scarcity. The DHMZ monitors drought using two primary indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI calculates precipitation amounts over specific timeframes and compares them to historical averages for the region. The SPEI includes potential evapotranspiration—the amount of moisture lost from soil and vegetation due to temperature-driven evaporation—providing a more comprehensive view of how heat affects actual water availability. This index is particularly useful in warmer climates where drought is not solely about less rain but also about faster water loss from land and plants. Tracking drought through continuous monitoring networks is essential for comparing current conditions with past trends. Such data helps distinguish between natural variations and the growing influence of climate change. In Croatia, climate change is amplifying drought conditions, especially around the Adriatic Sea during warmer parts of the year. Measurements from the DHMZ indicate that dry periods have become more frequent and longer, with the number of extreme drought episodes significantly increasing. Climate change should be understood as an intensifier of extremes rather than a uniform rise in temperatures. As the atmosphere warms, it can hold more moisture, which eventually leads to stronger rainfall events, storms, and abrupt weather changes. Climate change is already present, and Croatia can expect increasingly severe extremes—dry and hot summers punctuated by sudden storms and shorter winters marked by brief but intense cold snaps. These evolving conditions will continue to shape the landscape, economy, and daily lives of Croatians in ways that require careful adaptation and preparation.