Roberto Vannacci, former general and former ally of Matteo Salvini, has become a growing headache for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. The ultra-right party Futuro Nazionale, led by Vannacci, continues to gain ground in Italy, according to recent polls. The data shows that the party is steadily increasing its share of votes, surpassing even Salvini’s League, which was once his political home. This shift threatens to reshape the Italian political landscape ahead of the upcoming general elections, scheduled for late September 2026. According to the latest average of polls published by the YouTrend institute, if general elections were held today, Futuro Nazionale would secure 7.1% of the vote. This is significantly higher than the 5.9% currently recorded for the League, which serves as a junior coalition partner in Meloni’s government. Forza Italia, another coalition member, remains stable with around 8%, while Meloni’s Hereditary Party (HDI) holds at 26%, slightly below its level from a year ago. Other recent surveys have confirmed this trend, indicating that Futuro Nazionale is becoming the fifth-largest party in Italy and the fastest-growing force within the conservative bloc. Vannacci entered politics in 2024 through the League under Salvini’s leadership. He was elected as an MEP after finishing second in the European elections, just behind Meloni. However, he soon broke away from both the League and the Patriots group in the European Parliament to join the more radical Eurosceptic faction known as Europa delle Nazioni Soberane. His political platform focuses on opposing immigration, rejecting diversity policies, and criticizing what he calls the "woke ideology." He has also made controversial statements regarding the LGBTQ+ community and praised the legacy of Benito Mussolini, making him one of the most polarizing figures in Italian politics. The rise of Futuro Nazionale can largely be attributed to a realignment within the conservative block supporting Meloni's government. A recent study by Ipsos reveals that over a third of Vannacci’s supporters come from the abstentionist electorate. Another 31% originate from HDI, Meloni’s party, while 25% stem from the League. Comparing these figures to the results of the 2024 European elections, the League appears to be the most affected, losing more than 20% of its voter base. HDI would also see a decline of around 8%, while Vannacci’s movement gains traction among the previously indifferent voters. Italian politics is characterized by its volatility and constant reshuffling of alliances. Despite the stability of Meloni’s government, which aims to establish the longest-serving administration in modern Italian history, the emergence of Vannacci poses a challenge to the existing balance of power on the right. If Meloni, Tajani, Salvini, and Vannacci were to run together, their combined support could reach nearly 47% of the vote, very close to the left-wing opposition’s projected 44.3%. Yet, Vannacci remains a divisive figure who unsettles many within the ruling coalition. Meloni’s sharp response to Spain over the Ceuta crisis, including threats to expel Spain from the Schengen area, seems to align with Vannacci’s rhetoric. This move, supported by Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, reflects a broader strategy to appeal to the nationalist sentiments within HDI’s base. However, such claims lack legal foundation and contradict established EU norms. Meanwhile, other European governments, including Finland, have echoed similar criticisms against Spain, further complicating diplomatic relations. As the political landscape shifts, the role of Vannacci and Futuro Nazionale will likely intensify. With the general elections approaching, the question remains whether the current governing coalition can maintain unity or if internal divisions will lead to further fragmentation. The coming months will determine whether Vannacci’s influence grows into a major threat or remains a niche force within Italy’s complex political system.
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