Limit bets on clinical-trial outcomes being placed on prediction markets

Nature NewsIndependentCenter13 hr. ago

In September 2026, Thomas J. Hwang and Sarah M. E. Gabriele expressed concerns about the rise of online betting through U.S. 'prediction markets,' particularly the recent expansion allowing bets on clinical trial outcomes and regulatory decisions. They argue this development, referred to as 'event contracts,' could increase financial pressures that might lead to unethical behavior within medical research. The authors highlight growing skepticism among researchers regarding the potential impact of these markets on scientific integrity.

Bias read (Center): The article presents a balanced discussion of ethical concerns surrounding prediction markets in medical research without overtly favoring any particular stance. It highlights potential risks but does not advocate for specific policy changes or present biased perspectives.