Libya: Fifteen years after Gaddafi, country still divided

Fifteen years after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, Libya remains deeply divided, with political, institutional, and security crises persisting despite initial hopes for stability following the 2011 revolution. Recent violence has underscored the nation's continued fragility, with key incidents highlighting the ongoing conflict between rival factions. In the east, General al-Mansouri, an intelligence official aligned with Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, was assassinated, marking another escalation in tensions. Meanwhile, in the west, drone attacks targeted strategic energy infrastructure in Zawiya, further destabilizing the region. The division within Libya has proven resistant to resolution. Political efforts to unify the country have faltered, with general elections initially scheduled for late 2023 failing to materialize. Instead, rival factions have entrenched their positions, deepening the political rift. Administrations, armed groups, economic networks, and local officials have pursued their own interests, creating a fragmented landscape where reintegration of the state requires substantial redistribution of power, resources, and influence. Political parties, which proliferated after the 2011 revolution, have significantly diminished in influence. Many political figures and qualified professionals have distanced themselves from the volatile political environment, opting instead for more secure roles or retreat from public life. This exodus reflects broader disillusionment with the political process, which has been characterized by persistent rivalry and instability. Libya's reliance on oil underscores the complex interdependence between the warring factions. While much of the country's oil production originates from regions under the control of Khalifa Haftar's eastern camp, the primary institutions managing oil revenues are located in Tripoli. This economic dependency means that despite political hostility, the two sides remain economically intertwined. The distribution of oil revenues sustains the current system, allowing it to function without achieving genuine political unification. This precarious balance has persisted for fifteen years, maintaining a status quo that advantages certain powerful actors. However, for ordinary Libyans, the situation continues to hinder the realization of a unified, stable state capable of fulfilling the aspirations that emerged during the 2011 revolution. The lack of progress toward national reconciliation has left many citizens feeling disconnected from the political processes shaping their future. As the country approaches its fifteenth year since the revolution, the challenges facing Libya remain formidable. The absence of meaningful political reform, coupled with ongoing security threats, suggests that the path to stability will be long and arduous. The international community, too, faces difficult choices regarding how best to engage with a nation caught in such profound internal discord. The future of Libya hinges on whether these competing forces can find a way forward, or whether the divisions will endure indefinitely.