'The country is about to fall into the clutches of fascism': in Brazil, a decisive day for an ultra-narrow second round

Brazil’s left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva secured his fourth term in office on Sunday, defeating conservative senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a decisive runoff election. With nearly all votes counted, Lula captured 51.76 percent of the valid ballots, while Bolsonaro received 48.24 percent, according to data released by the country's electoral commission. The victory represents a historic political reversal, as no presidential candidate in Brazilian democracy since its restoration in 1988 had ever won a second round after losing the first. The result was unexpected, contradicting recent polling data that had placed Bolsonaro ahead or indicated a statistical tie within margins of error. The campaign for the October 25 vote was marked by intense division and high stakes. In the first round held on October 4, Bolsonaro had led Lula, leading many analysts to believe the long-time labor leader’s political career was nearing its end. However, Lula urged his supporters to maintain trust and mobilize for the final showdown. His campaign slogan, "It will turn around," became a rallying cry at rallies following his initial defeat. On election day, approximately 158.7 million voters were eligible to cast ballots. Turnout saw a slight increase compared to the first round, with three million additional citizens voting in the runoff despite 30.5 million abstaining. Voting hours were extended by two hours in some locations due to public transport issues and bad weather, a delay requested by both campaigns. Lula celebrated his victory alongside family members and political allies before addressing crowds of supporters. He thanked his campaign team and specifically praised young voters who took to the streets to defend democracy. Describing the outcome as a defeat of negativity and lies, Lula emphasized that voters understood the importance of the election for national sovereignty. Vice President-elect Geraldo Alckmin stated that Lula had saved Brazilian democracy for the second time. In São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, massive celebrations erupted immediately after results were announced. Supporters lit fireworks, sang, and embraced one another, with many unable to hold back tears. Avenida Paulista in São Paulo turned into a scene of mass celebration. In stark contrast, the mood among Bolsonaro’s supporters was one of disappointment and anger. Crowds gathered outside his home in Brasília to watch the count, expecting a win for their candidate. As the results solidified in Lula’s favor, supporters began to disperse visibly upset. Bolsonaro refused to accept the outcome, stating he could not recognize the election results because of the extended voting hours. He declared his intention to seek annulment of the vote. His campaign had already expressed doubts about the conduct of the elections prior to the official declaration. The victory marks a significant personal comeback for the 80-year-old former trade unionist. Lula previously served as president from 2003 to 2010. He returned to power in January 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro, Flávio’s father, in the 2022 election. His path to this latest mandate was obstructed by legal challenges; in 2017, he was convicted of corruption and spent more than 18 months in prison. Those convictions were overturned in 2021, clearing him to run again. During his current third term, which began in 2023, unemployment fell to historical lows, poverty decreased, and the minimum wage rose. Lula campaigned on these social achievements, warning that Bolsonaro would cut social spending. Despite the electoral triumph, Lula faces substantial governance challenges. The country is burdened by high interest rates and public debt exceeding 82 percent of gross domestic product. Furthermore, Lula does not hold a majority in Congress. Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party and its allies command majorities in both chambers of the legislature. This legislative landscape complicates the implementation of his agenda. The election result also disrupted expectations in international politics. It halted a wave of right-wing electoral successes in Latin America and thwarted hopes held by United States President Donald Trump for another regional ally. The U.S. State Department had previously supported efforts to return the Bolsonaro faction to power. Lula also addressed the role of digital platforms during the campaign. He accused large technology companies of attempting to influence the electoral outcome and criticized them for generating profits without contributing sufficient taxes to the country. He argued that crimes committed in the digital world must be treated with the same severity as crimes in physical life and called for new regulations governing tech firms. Acknowledging the responsibility of his position, Lula stated that he must govern for all Brazilians, including those who did not vote for him. The final margin of victory was approximately 4.4 million votes, a gap that emerged sharply against the backdrop of polls published just days before the vote. These surveys, including those from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel, had shown a tight race, with some placing Bolsonaro slightly ahead by less than two percentage points, well within the margin of error. The discrepancy between the final tally and the pre-election projections has drawn attention to the volatility of the Brazilian electorate in the final weeks of the campaign.