Latino Support for GOP's Byron Donalds in Doubt for Florida Governor's Race

Republican Byron Donalds holds a lead over Democrat David Jolly in the race for Florida governor, though a new poll indicates significant weakness among Latino voters. The N+ Univision/YouGov survey released on Monday shows Donalds at 50 percent and Jolly at 42 percent among all Florida voters. However, within the Latino demographic, Jolly leads Donalds 48 percent to 43 percent. The poll surveyed 825 Florida voters via the internet between October 2 and October 15, with a margin of error of four percentage points. A separate oversample of 937 registered Latino voters produced the specific breakdown for that group. The results highlight a divergence in support based on ethnic origin. Cuban voters favored the Trump-endorsed Donalds 51 percent to 42 percent. In contrast, Puerto Rican voters preferred Jolly 51 percent to 35 percent, and South American voters supported Jolly 47 percent to 44 percent. Among Latinos who voted for President Donald Trump in the 2024 election, nine percent currently support Jolly. The data suggests that while Trump maintains influence among certain segments, his overall favorability among Latinos is lower than his general standing. His favorability rating among this group stands at 38 percent, compared to an unfavorable rating of 54 percent. Immigration enforcement emerges as a critical driver of voter sentiment. Fifty-five percent of Latino respondents stated that immigration enforcement has gone too far. This figure includes 32 percent who believe the border needed securing but argue current measures are excessive, along with 23 percent who felt the border situation was overstated and that enforcement is still excessive. Additionally, 41 percent of Latinos expressed concern that they or someone close to them could be affected by immigration actions. Twenty-nine percent of Latino Trump supporters specifically indicated that enforcement has gone too far. Economic concerns remain paramount for voters in the state. Fifty-nine percent of Latinos identified jobs and the cost of living as their top issue. Housing costs and affordability followed closely at 57 percent, while immigration and its enforcement ranked third at 33 percent. Clarissa Martinez, Vice President of the nonprofit Unidos US, noted via email that the poll aligns with broader Hispanic voter sentiment regarding economic discontent. She stated that cost of living and immigration enforcement are the primary factors influencing Hispanic views of the president and driving voters away from Republicans. Other polling data presents a mixed picture of the race. A Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research poll conducted from October 1 to October 9 found Donalds ahead 52 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. That survey included 826 Florida adults and reported that approximately five percent were undecided, while three percent would choose another candidate. Another study by MDW Communications and EDGE Communications, published on October 14, polled 2,351 likely voters between October 4 and October 10. It showed Donalds at 45.9 percent and Jolly at 43.8 percent, with 10.3 percent undecided. The margin of error for that study was 2.8 percentage points. A third poll by Change Research, fielded from October 8 to October 10 among 920 likely voters, resulted in a tie at 47 percent each, with a modeled margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Former President Bill Clinton recently campaigned for Jolly at an interfaith event in Hollywood, Florida. Clinton, appearing alongside Jolly, criticized politicians for picking fights while Americans struggle with basic costs. He urged the crowd to support Jolly, quoting the biblical passage from Galatians 6: "Let us not grow weary in doing good." Clinton emphasized that Jolly possesses the background and determination necessary to improve lives in the state. He joked about previously referring to Jolly as "Reverend Jolly" before committing to supporting the candidate and fellow Democrat Gwen Graham. The political landscape in Florida has shifted significantly in recent years. Once considered a battleground, the state has moved rightward, aided by an influx of conservative retirees and Trump’s gains in Hispanic-majority areas such as Miami-Dade, Hillsborough, and Osceola counties. Trump won Florida by double digits in the 2024 presidential election against Kamala Harris. Registered Republicans now outnumber registered Democrats by more than 1.5 million. Floridians have not elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles, who was re-elected in 1994. Although Charlie Crist later served as governor, he ran as a Republican at the time. Midterm elections traditionally serve as a referendum on the party in power, which historically loses seats. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both the House and the Senate. Trump’s approval ratings have dipped on issues including the economy, immigration, jobs, and the ongoing conflict in Iran, as households continue to cite affordability problems. Despite these headwinds, the N+ Univision/YouGov poll indicates that Donalds maintains an overall advantage, even as his support fractures within the Latino community. Campaigns for both Jolly and Donalds did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the new findings.