The economy fell 0.5% in May and grew just 0.2% in the last year.

Argentina's economy contracted by 0.5% in May, marking a reversal after expanding by 1.9% in April compared to March. The monthly decline underscores the volatile performance of the country’s economic activity so far this year, which analysts have described as resembling a "sawtooth" pattern, alternating between growth and contraction. According to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (Indec), the annual growth rate stood at just 0.2%, reflecting a very modest improvement over the previous year. The data was released in Indec’s report on the Monthly Economic Activity Estimator (EMAE), which measures the overall level of economic activity. In comparison to May 2025, eight of the fifteen sectors recorded increases, with mining and quarrying showing the highest growth at 15.7% annually. Electricity, gas, and water followed closely behind with an 8% annual increase. Agriculture, livestock, hunting, and forestry grew by 4.6% annually and contributed the most positively to the overall annual variation of the EMAE, adding 1.2 percentage points to its growth. In contrast, seven sectors saw declines when comparing the same period last year. Fishing dropped sharply by 29.3%, while manufacturing fell by 5.6% and wholesale, retail, and repair services declined by 4.3%. These sectors collectively subtracted 1.4 percentage points from the annual change in the EMAE. Gabriel Caamaño, an economist and director of the Outlier consultancy, noted that the EMAE for May was significantly worse than anticipated. He stated that the acceleration in large-scale harvesting during the month did not offset the poor performance of other sectors. With an annual growth rate of 0.2% and a monthly drop of 0.5%, the cumulative annual growth remained at just 0.7%. Caamaño added that preliminary data for June appear even more negative than those for May. However, he suggested that May’s disappointing figures might lead to some compensation later in the year. He concluded that the economic activity continues to lag well below expectations, and forecasts are likely to continue adjusting downward. The fluctuating nature of Argentina’s economic performance has raised concerns among economists and policymakers alike. While certain industries show resilience, others face persistent challenges that hinder broader economic recovery. The disparity in sectoral performance highlights the uneven impact of macroeconomic policies and external factors such as global commodity prices and inflation. Analysts suggest that the government must address structural issues affecting key sectors, particularly those experiencing sharp declines. Manufacturing and trade, which play crucial roles in the national economy, require targeted interventions to stabilize their performance. Meanwhile, the positive contributions from agriculture and energy sectors offer some hope for future growth, although they alone cannot offset widespread weaknesses elsewhere. The latest economic indicators reinforce the need for sustained policy efforts aimed at fostering inclusive and sustainable development. As the year progresses, continued monitoring of sectoral trends will be essential to gauge whether the current trajectory signals a temporary setback or a deeper shift in Argentina’s economic landscape. The situation remains under close scrutiny, with further data releases expected to provide clearer insights into the direction of the economy.