Climate-damaging air travel: there are hardly any disadvantages if airlines do more for the climate

European airlines face a potential expansion of the emissions trading system (ETS) that could increase flight costs by up to one percent, according to a new study by the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). The research challenges previous concerns over carbon leakage, suggesting that shifting emissions to non-European hubs would be minimal under certain models. The European Commission is considering expanding the ETS to cover more international flights departing from the EU, which currently excludes two-thirds of aviation emissions due to exemptions for long-haul routes. The proposed reform aims to address perceived unfair advantages held by non-EU carriers by including all international departures from Europe within the ETS framework. This move could generate additional annual revenues of around 9 billion euros if all such flights were included, with the potential to rise to 19 billion euros if incoming international flights were also covered. However, the study highlights that even under the broadest interpretation, carbon leakage would remain limited to just 3.1 percent. A distance-based approach, which taxes only the first 7,500 kilometers of a flight, would capture 96 percent of the revenue while keeping leakage rates below 1.1 percent. Despite these findings, airline representatives have expressed caution. Lufthansa warned that expanded ETS regulations might lead to higher ticket prices and increased freight costs, potentially pushing passengers toward alternative hubs such as Istanbul or Dubai. Similarly, Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline, has advocated for removing domestic flights from the ETS, arguing that current costs amount to approximately seven euros per ticket. The company's stance reflects broader industry resistance to further financial burdens. The impact on travelers appears relatively modest. According to a recent analysis by the NGO Carbon Market Watch, the ETS expansion would raise the cost of a flight from Frankfurt to Singapore by roughly one percent, while a journey from Amsterdam to Istanbul could see a four percent increase. These figures suggest that while there will be some price adjustments, they are unlikely to significantly affect consumer behavior or travel patterns. The international aviation sector contributes about three percent to global greenhouse gas emissions. In Germany alone, flights accounted for nearly 195 million tons of CO₂ in 2025, representing almost a third of the country’s total emissions, marking a return to pre-pandemic levels. This underscores the growing importance of regulatory measures aimed at curbing emissions from air transport. The study also outlines how the generated funds could be utilized. While the specifics remain under discussion, the ICCT suggests that the money could support initiatives to accelerate the transition to cleaner technologies and sustainable practices within the aviation industry. The debate continues as policymakers weigh economic implications against environmental goals, seeking a balance that ensures both competitiveness and sustainability.