China as a central superpower and the new Cold War

G20 foreign ministers convened in Atlanta on Friday under a cloud of diplomatic tension, as Russia displayed no willingness to soften its stance regarding the war in Ukraine. The two-day meeting, intended to precede a leaders’ summit in December, began with sharp disagreements among delegates. A traditional group photograph, typically used to open such gatherings, was abruptly cancelled after approximately one-third of participating nations, including the United Kingdom, Australia, and European Union states, refused to stand beside Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio removed the image from the official agenda, stating that Washington did not wish for the event to become a spectacle or a distraction. Despite the fractious atmosphere, Rubio opened the sessions with an appeal for unity. He told his colleagues that the world faces a series of interconnected economic and geopolitical crises. Specifically, he cited disruptions to global energy and food supplies, trade instability, and threats to freedom of navigation as severe dangers to the foundations of the global economic order. However, diplomats present described the opening session as cordial yet fraught, noting that Russia’s position on Ukraine remained unyielding. This rigidity extended to Moscow’s opposition to Poland’s bid for formal G20 membership. The refusal to participate in the group photo highlighted a deep rift within the forum. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul warned ahead of the session that there would be no family photo involving European partners and Lavrov, arguing that there is no normality with Russia. British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband echoed this sentiment, stating that the UK has not engaged in such photo opportunities with Russia for several years. Miliband explicitly addressed Lavrov, asserting that if the international community is serious about its values, it must work harder to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine. He characterized the conflict as an assault on international law, sovereignty, and self-determination. Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as brutal and unjustified during the opening session. She stated that the illegal war had negatively impacted international markets and worsened global food security. A spokesperson for Wong confirmed that Australia supported the US decision to cancel the photograph, reiterating that Canberra would not normalize Russia’s actions. The spokesperson added that Australia’s focus remains on addressing the challenges facing the global economy. Canadian officials also indicated their opposition to appearing alongside Russian representatives. Beyond the dispute over Ukraine, the meeting grappled with other contentious issues, including the US-Israeli war against Iran, US tariff policies, and Chinese activities in the South China Sea. These conflicts have contributed to rising global fuel costs and trade uncertainty. Participants noted that the presence of warring parties at the table makes reaching a common line difficult. Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, attending as a guest representative, remarked that it is very hard to agree on a common line when participants in active wars are seated at the table. Sikorski also noted that he was not alone in his reluctance to be photographed with Lavrov. The composition of the meeting itself became a point of contention. Ukraine, though not a formal G20 member, was invited to previous meetings but was excluded this year. US officials described this as a deliberate choice to limit attendance to formal members. Conversely, South Africa, a founding G20 member and the only African nation in the group, was not invited. South Africa is currently involved in several disputes with the Trump administration. When South Africa chaired the G20 last year, senior US officials, including President Donald Trump and Rubio, boycotted the meetings. Phindile Kunene, a spokesperson for South African International Relations Minister Ronald Lamola, stated that South Africa’s non-participation is not voluntary. Participants indicated that these deep divisions will likely prevent the foreign ministers from issuing a joint communiqué when the meetings conclude on Saturday. Nevertheless, several attendees, speaking anonymously due to restrictions on discussing closed-door talks, said they agreed to attempt to bridge their differences. Their goal is to ensure the upcoming G20 leaders’ summit, scheduled for next month in Florida, proceeds successfully. That summit is set to be hosted by President Trump at his resort in Miami. German diplomat Wadephul pledged to call on Russia to accept Ukraine’s offer of a ceasefire, specifically starting in the Black Sea. There was also interest in pressing Lavrov to clarify Russia’s stance on potential future negotiations with Kyiv. While the immediate outcome appears to be a lack of consensus, the diplomatic engagement continues amidst a backdrop of multiple concurrent conflicts and economic strain. The absence of a unified statement underscores the difficulty in aligning the diverse interests of the G20 members in the current geopolitical climate.