The PJ sharpens the pencil: four provinces to unite and take advantage of Milei's wear and tear

The Peronist party has begun aligning its strategy, focusing on four provinces, Chaco, San Juan, Santa Fe, and Chubut, as potential battlegrounds where unity could help counter the declining influence of President Javier Milei’s government. According to internal assessments shared with regional leaders, these provinces offer favorable conditions for the opposition, particularly as public perception of the national administration continues to erode. In Chaco, the constitutional framework allows for a clear separation between the provincial and national governments, which has already been confirmed by Governor Leandro Zdero. However, Senator Jorge Capitanich has signaled he will not seek another term, though his candidacy remains under consideration in Buenos Aires based on current polling data. In San Juan, the Peronists have a solid foundation, having won the last election by a narrow margin. The race saw Fabián Martín (Orreguismo) finish second and La Libertad Avanza (LLA) third. Senator Sergio Uñac is working to consolidate local leadership, though tensions remain with former governor José Luis Gioja, who supported the candidacy of Axel Kicillof. Despite this, there is optimism that a deal could emerge, driven by concerns over Milei’s popularity, economic stagnation, and fears that deeper alliances with LLA might drag down the provincial administration. Meanwhile, LLA continues to build its own structure under the leadership of José Peluc. Santa Fe presents a different challenge. LLA emerged strongly in the recent election, undermining the performance of Governor Maximiliano Pullaro. Peronist officials, including Diputado Diego Giuliano, who represents Sergio Massa, are pushing for greater unity within the province. Other names such as Germán Martínez and Omar Perotti are also being considered for the gubernatorial race. The calculation among Peronists is that if LLA and Pullaro run separately, there may be an opportunity to capitalize on their divided support. Additionally, the entry of Diego Santilli into the national government has introduced new dynamics, potentially leading to an agreement where LLA promises a less disruptive local candidate. In Chubut, early polls suggest a possible three-way tie between Ignacio Torres, César Treffinger, and Juan Pablo Luque representing Unión por La Patria. The Peronists see an opportunity here, recalling the 2025 election where the Torres-led front finished third behind LLA and the Peronist slate. With the province often decided by a single vote, any fragmentation between Torres and the national government could open the door for a Peronist victory. The prospect of a potential alliance with LLA is also being discussed, with the aim of forming a non-aggressive coalition that avoids direct confrontation. Across all four provinces, the Peronist strategy hinges on leveraging the weakening image of Milei and the broader political fatigue among voters. The focus is on maintaining internal cohesion while positioning itself to benefit from the growing discontent with the current administration. In Chaco, the existing legal framework supports the division between provincial and national governance, which Peronists believe gives them an advantage. In San Juan, the emphasis is on resolving internal disputes to ensure a unified front. In Santa Fe, the challenge lies in countering LLA’s strength while keeping options open for future negotiations. In Chubut, the key is to prevent further fragmentation that could weaken the Peronist position. As the political landscape shifts, the Peronist leadership is preparing for the upcoming elections, aiming to capitalize on the opportunities presented by the current climate. The success of their strategy will depend on how effectively they can maintain unity and adapt to the evolving situation in each province. The coming months will likely see increased coordination and strategic moves aimed at securing victories in these critical regions.