Kemi Badenoch’s popularity is rising – but voters still unconvinced by Tory party, new poll shows

Kemi Badenoch’s popularity has surged significantly in recent months, fueling speculation of a potential resurgence for the Conservative Party under her leadership. According to the latest YouGov polling, 38 percent of British voters now believe she is performing well as leader of the opposition, marking a sharp increase from 14 percent in October 2025. Additionally, 27 percent of respondents think she could become the next prime minister, a figure that has more than tripled from 8 percent during the 2025 Tory conference. These figures suggest a notable shift in public perception, though challenges remain for the party as a whole. The data reveals that Badenoch’s favorability has grown most strongly among former Conservative and Reform UK supporters. Among those who backed the Conservatives in the 2024 general election, 74 percent now hold a favorable view of her, up 21 percentage points from earlier in the year. Similarly, 53 percent of Reform UK voters now rate her positively, representing a 20-point increase. Her appeal has also extended to some extent to non-Tory voters, with 17 percent of Labour supporters and 13 percent of Green supporters expressing a favorable opinion of her. Despite these gains, 46 percent of all voters still hold an unfavorable view of Badenoch, indicating that her personal popularity does not yet translate into widespread public endorsement. Public perception of Badenoch has shifted toward viewing her as a decisive and competent leader. Nearly 43 percent of respondents describe her as ‘decisive,’ compared to 21 percent who label her ‘indecisive.’ Likewise, 40 percent see her as ‘strong,’ while 24 percent perceive her as ‘weak.’ A similar split exists regarding competence versus incompetence, with 40 percent rating her as competent and 27 percent as incompetent. These findings underscore a growing consensus that Badenoch embodies qualities associated with effective leadership, although skepticism persists. Trust in Badenoch remains a point of contention. Only 25 percent of voters consider her ‘trustworthy,’ a modest increase from 18 percent in October. Conversely, 37 percent of respondents believe she is ‘untrustworthy.’ This divide highlights ongoing concerns about the integrity of the Conservative Party, even as its leader garners individual support. The lack of broader confidence in the party suggests that while Badenoch may be seen as a viable candidate for prime minister, many voters remain hesitant to align themselves with the Conservatives as a governing body. The Conservative Party itself has not mirrored the dramatic improvement in Badenoch’s personal ratings. While her favorability has climbed, the party’s overall standing has remained relatively stable. In YouGov’s voting intention tracker, the Conservatives have averaged 20 percent of the vote in recent weeks, slightly higher than the 17 percent recorded in October. However, only 19 percent of voters currently believe the Conservatives are prepared for government, a figure that lags behind the 57 percent of the public who view them as unfit for power. This disconnect underscores the challenge facing the party as it seeks to rebuild its credibility. In contrast, Labour has seen a marked increase in its popularity, with new leader Andy Burnham emerging as the most favored potential prime minister. In a head-to-head comparison, 38 percent of voters prefer Burnham over Badenoch, reflecting a 12-point advantage for the Labour leader. Meanwhile, Badenoch maintains a narrow edge over Reform UK’s Nigel Farage, with 41 percent of voters supporting her against his 17 percent. This dynamic illustrates the complex landscape of political preferences, where individual leaders can gain traction even amid broader party struggles. As the political climate continues to evolve, the trajectory of Badenoch’s influence will be closely watched. With her personal ratings reaching new heights, the question remains whether she can translate this momentum into broader electoral success for the Conservative Party. For now, the path forward appears to hinge on whether the party can address deep-seated doubts about its governance capabilities while leveraging the growing appeal of its leader.