Yemen on the brink of a new war: the exchange of missiles reaches Saudi Arabia

Yemen teeters on the brink of renewed conflict as rocket exchanges reach Saudi Arabia. On Monday evening, Houthi rebels launched rockets and drones targeting the international airport in Abha, located in southern-western Saudi Arabia. This followed attacks earlier that morning by Yemeni government forces against the runway of Sanaa’s international airport. The trigger was an Iranian aircraft carrying a delegation returning from Tehran, which altered its course and landed instead at the port city of Hudayda. The incident marks the most severe escalation since the brief ceasefire of April 2022. The tensions have been building over ten days, beginning with the arrival of an Iranian plane in Sanaa, a first such occurrence in over a decade. This prompted threats from Houthi leaders against Saudi Arabia. The situation has intensified due to fears among the Houthi leadership regarding the military consolidation of their opponents. Following the dissolution of the Southern Transitional Council, a military alliance backed by the United Arab Emirates and aligned with Saudi Arabia against the Houthi rebels, these regions are now under control of the internationally recognized Yemeni government. For the Houthi rebels, this represents a threat, as the division within the anti-Houthi coalition had long weakened their opposition. Economic conditions in areas controlled by the Houthis are dire. Public sector wages have not been paid for years, and even fighters within the group reportedly wait months for their salaries. Meanwhile, U.S. media reports indicate that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sought support from former President Donald Trump for another military campaign in Yemen, receiving approval on Friday. The U.S. representative at the UN Security Council reaffirmed Washington's backing of its Gulf allies and accused Iran of violating Yemen’s sovereignty by supplying the Houthi rebels with military equipment. Analysts see this as a turning point suggesting the resumption of hostilities, despite the Houthi rebels having little interest in engaging Saudi Arabia in war. For Iran, the Houthi allies in Yemen play a crucial role, particularly through their access to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital shipping route linking Asia and Europe. Since 2023, the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to disrupt maritime traffic in the Red Sea, supporting the Hamas in the Gaza Strip. By connecting fronts via Hormuz in the east and the Red Sea through the Houthis in the west, Iran aims to secure strategic advantages. Saudi Arabia, which routes its oil exports around the Strait of Hormuz, faces potential threats from these actions. The rockets fired on Monday originated from areas near this coastal region, serving as a warning that the Houthis could threaten this critical supply line. The conflict continues to deepen, with both sides showing signs of increasing hostility. The situation underscores the complex interplay of regional alliances and the ongoing struggle for influence in Yemen. As the situation evolves, the implications for regional stability remain uncertain.