JD Vance and Marco Rubio Are Both Losing Ground in 2028 Race

President Donald Trump declined on Tuesday to confirm his endorsement of Vice President JD Vance for a potential 2028 presidential run, stating it is premature to discuss succession while the nation focuses on upcoming midterm elections. Speaking in the Oval Office, the president described Vance as a talented and good individual but insisted that neither man has discussed the topic. This statement contrasts with remarks Vance made the previous day, in which he expressed confidence that Trump would support him immediately if he launched a campaign. The exchange occurred amidst shifting odds in prediction markets, where both Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio saw their probabilities of securing the Republican nomination decrease recently. The conversation took place during a press briefing in the Oval Office, where Vance was present alongside the president. When questioned about his recent comments regarding a future endorsement, Trump noted that he believes they have never spoken about the subject. He emphasized that the timing is wrong, citing the necessity to navigate the midterm elections scheduled for November 3. Trump stated that he does not discuss the issue with Vance, nor does Vance bring it up with him. He characterized the discussion as irrelevant at this stage, urging focus on the current legislative contests. Vance briefly interjected to agree with the president, confirming that he had previously indicated a lack of direct conversation on the matter. These remarks stand in contrast to statements Vance gave to journalist Mark Halperin on Monday. In that interview, Vance asserted that he believed Trump would endorse him right away if he entered the race. However, Vance tempered his certainty by noting that he had not explicitly discussed the point with the president. He argued that while the presidential endorsement is historically dispositive, there is value in candidates running their own races independently. Vance suggested that a scenario exists where the president might choose to let the primary process unfold without preemptively judging the outcome. During the same interview, Vance admitted he has not fully committed to a 2028 bid, citing the intense pressure of media scrutiny and policy demands as factors that might be difficult for him to manage. He mentioned his four young children and his wife’s preference for staying out of politics as personal considerations. Data from prediction markets reflects a cooling of enthusiasm for the top two contenders. An analysis of Polymarket data shows that Vance’s odds of winning the Republican nomination dropped from approximately 53 percent on September 3 to 43.8 percent on Tuesday. Over nearly $714 million in cumulative trading volume has been recorded in this specific market. Similarly, Rubio’s odds fell from 27.8 percent on August 3 to 15.1 percent. A separate regulated platform, Kalshi, showed a similar trend with less volatility, with Vance’s odds decreasing from 45.8 percent to 43 percent, and Rubio’s dropping from 29.5 percent to 18 percent. The total trading volume on Kalshi for these contracts was approximately $70,000. Experts caution against interpreting these market shifts as definitive signals of voter sentiment. Koleman Strumpf, an economics professor at Wake Forest University who studies prediction markets, noted that Vance’s decline of roughly four points over the past week did not occur solely following his recent remarks. He observed that the movement did not significantly benefit Rubio, who also lost ground, suggesting traders do not view Vance’s comments as a decisive break from the status quo. Instead, the slight redistribution of probability appears to have benefited candidates with lower initial odds, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and commentator Tucker Carlson, who remain in the low single digits. Political scientists suggest that the upcoming midterm elections will be the critical variable for the 2028 cycle. Thad Kousser, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego, pointed out that both Vance and Rubio rose to prominence due to their close association with Trump. For the past decade, this alignment has been the strongest force in Republican primaries. Kousser posed the question of whether the 2026 midterm results will alter this dynamic. He warned that if the elections result in significant losses for the party, proximity to the president could transform from an asset into a liability for his closest allies. Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, echoed this concern. He argued that any Republican evaluating their 2028 prospects should exercise caution, particularly those deeply tied to the current administration. Panagopoulos suggested that if Democrats capture one or both chambers of Congress, the administration itself may become a burden for prospective successors. He predicted that the president would likely be held responsible for any electoral setbacks, extending that blame to high-profile cabinet members and the vice president. There are still two years remaining in the Trump administration, leaving the political landscape open to significant change. Meanwhile, the president continues to actively campaign for Republican candidates ahead of the November vote. On Tuesday, Trump highlighted a rally held the previous evening in Kansas in support of Senator Roger Marshall. He described the event as incredible and stated that it boosted the senator to the level where he belongs. The president also announced plans to participate in another electoral activity in North Carolina, continuing his efforts to bolster Republican candidates nationwide. These activities underscore the administration’s immediate priority: ensuring success in the midterms before turning attention to the distant horizon of the 2028 presidential contest.