Janša na Bledu: Europe must shape the future or others will

President of the government Janez Janša opened the 21st Blejski Strateški Forum with a speech emphasizing the necessity for Europe to shape its future itself, rather than allowing others to dictate it. Speaking at the opening ceremony in Bled, Janša warned that unless Europe overcomes four strategic challenges, security, resilience, demographic vitality, and credibility, it will gradually lose its ability to influence global affairs and face sudden realizations that its future is determined by external forces. He described this as a power to shape the future, not an illusion of controlling history, but a commitment to actively shaping it. Janša began his address with a quote from Ernest Hemingway’s novel In Our Time, which features a conversation between two characters, Bill and Mike, discussing how bankruptcy occurs. The dialogue illustrates how decline happens gradually and then suddenly, a metaphor Janša applied to international relations. He noted that while economic collapse can be gradual, the consequences often arrive abruptly. Similarly, he argued that international conflicts, dependencies, technological shifts, and even freedom evolve slowly but can change dramatically in moments of crisis. This pattern, he suggested, has shaped modern history and continues to define geopolitical realities today. He referenced October 1, 1991, when helicopters flew over highways leading from Ljubljana toward Postojna, witnessing the final column of Yugoslav troops retreating toward Koper. At that time, Slovenia had recently been disarmed and was vulnerable due to its military structure being disproportionately weaker than its aggressors. Yet, the abrupt end of conflict was rooted in years of preparation and transformation. Janša used this historical moment to underscore the importance of long-term strategy and collective action in shaping the future. The theme of this year’s forum, Power to Shape the Future, was, according to Janša, particularly relevant given current global uncertainties. He stressed that while the capacity to shape the future builds gradually through capabilities, alliances, and institutions, decisive moments often arrive unexpectedly. These moments, he argued, reveal whether small states have destiny or whether the decline of a civilization is inevitable. Historian Eric Jones contributed to the discussion, questioning why Europe, rather than larger, more centralized empires, has created such profound changes in world order. He attributed part of the answer to Europe’s political diversity, a multitude of nations close enough to learn from one another yet independent enough to compete. While political fragmentation might seem limiting, Jones argued that it has historically fostered competition, adaptation, and innovation. He concluded that Europe’s strength lies not in uniformity but in its ability to transform diversity into creativity and ultimately into power. Jones emphasized that Europe's success has not come from homogeneity but from its capacity to harness differences. This perspective aligns with Janša’s argument that Europe must maintain its ability to shape its own future. Both speakers highlighted the risks of complacency and the need for sustained investment in security, technology, and institutional frameworks. On the topic of security, Janša reaffirmed NATO’s irreplaceable role in European defense. He stated that a powerful Europe, including its military capabilities, is not an alternative to the transatlantic partnership but rather an extension of it. He acknowledged Ukraine’s struggle against aggression, noting that Ukrainians defend not just their territory but the principle that borders should not be altered by force. He warned that if aggression is rewarded, the lesson learned could extend far beyond Ukraine. Despite these concerns, Janša pointed to growing investments in European defense technologies. Between 2021 and 2024, funding for European defense-related companies exceeded five times the previous level. However, U.S. investments remained significantly higher during the same period, highlighting ongoing reliance on American support. The forum, hosted in Bled, brought together over 150 speakers from more than 70 countries, focusing on key issues such as the future of the EU, security, the Western Balkans, geopolitical dynamics, and societal evolution. Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša welcomed guests from Latin America and held bilateral meetings with foreign ministers and business leaders. Discussions were centered on the EU’s expansion process, with particular attention to Slovenia’s role in advancing integration. The event featured panels led by high-level officials, including Slovenian Premier Janša, Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar, and Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković. Topics ranged from the future of European governance to the impact of globalization on national sovereignty. The forum also included awards presented by prominent figures, including Ukrainian human rights activist Oleksandra Matviičuk. As the forum unfolded, it became clear that the discussions would continue to explore the complex interplay between stability, innovation, and the evolving nature of global power structures. With the world facing unprecedented uncertainty, the question remains: Can Europe still assert its agency in shaping its own destiny?