Jakovina on Zelensky's visit to Serbia: "It has not yet been decided which side to go to"

A former historian, Tvrtko Jakovina, has expressed uncertainty about the direction of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to Serbia, noting that “it is still unclear which side the country will ultimately choose.” The discussion took place during an interview with Croatian journalist Hanan Nanić on Novi Dan, where Jakovina addressed broader geopolitical developments, including the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States, and the evolving dynamics in Ukraine. The conversation began with an assessment of the current state of the war in Iran, with Jakovina highlighting that air strikes of the most intense kind have largely ceased since April. He described the situation as “somewhat schizophrenic,” referencing Donald Trump’s frequent calls for negotiations despite his erratic public statements. Jakovina noted that while the strategic situation hasn’t changed significantly, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, with the U.S. responding with its own measures. He suggested that the outcome of these tensions could depend on whether Trump’s proposed talks contain genuine substance. He also pointed to the shift toward a more globally interconnected political landscape, where local events in the U.S., such as the Michigan primaries, have become international news. Jakovina remarked on how the influence of organizations like AIPAC, a powerful pro-Israel lobbying group, has shaped political outcomes, even affecting the campaigns of candidates who lost elections. This underscores the growing interdependence of global politics, where decisions made in one region can reverberate far beyond their immediate context. The discussion then turned to the changing balance of power in the Middle East, particularly following the U.S.-Israel failure against Iran and the broader geopolitical shifts after 2023, including the Israeli military actions in Gaza. Jakovina questioned whether Iran had truly lost the conflict, emphasizing that while the U.S. focused on resolving the Hormuz issue, Iran managed to block American efforts. He highlighted the potential significance of agreements between Oman and Iran, suggesting that Tehran would likely hold the dominant position in any diplomatic progress. Jakovina further commented on the unpopularity of the war in the U.S., noting that less than 90 days remain before the presidential election, and public sentiment is increasingly negative toward the conflict. He argued that this could lead to a shift in policy, although he stressed that the decision-making process would not be limited to Washington alone. He added that maintaining a target like Iran is more feasible than defeating the U.S., given the logistical challenges of ground operations. In addition, Jakovina discussed internal Iranian dynamics, noting that while there were previously segments of the population dissatisfied with centralized authority, this dissatisfaction appears to have diminished. He observed that the government's warnings about potential future scenarios were met with cautious compliance from some citizens, indicating a complex relationship between governance and public perception. Finally, Jakovina touched upon the implications of the U.S. using munitions in the conflict, stating that while the expenditure of weapons is costly, it does not necessarily indicate a dire situation. He suggested that the real challenge lies in determining whether the war should be fought differently, pointing to the financial burden rather than the immediate availability of resources. As for Zelenskyy’s visit to Serbia, Jakovina acknowledged that it could help solidify the country’s foreign policy stance, especially regarding its balanced approach toward both Russia and the West. He noted that while some had doubted the effectiveness of such policies, others believed they might yield positive results. However, he emphasized that the final direction remains uncertain, with European countries showing varying degrees of support for Vučić’s assessments.